Since the beginning of Putin’s war in Ukraine, the West has adopted the most comprehensive set of sanctions ever imposed against a country. The most recent development – halting American imports of Russian oil and gas – hits the Kremlin where it hurts the most. So far, however, sanctions do not seem to have deterred Putin. Some have argued that the West must do more – suggesting the imposition of a no-fly zone over parts or the whole of Ukraine, providing jets to the Ukrainian air force, or imposing a safe zone in the West of the country. What options are on the table, what would their consequences be, and how can we best support Kyiv?

The Henry Jackson Society is pleased to gather world experts to discuss this pressing issue.

Paul D’Anieri is Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at the University of California, Riverside. For the past three decades, his research has focused on Ukraine-Russia relations. He is the author of Ukraine and Russia: From Civilized Divorce to Uncivil War (Cambridge University Press, 2019). His other books include The Sources of Russia’s Great Power Politics: Ukraine and the Challenge to the European Order, (2018; with Taras Kuzio); Orange Revolution and Aftermath: Mobilization, Apathy, and the State in Ukraine (editor; 2010); Understanding Ukrainian Politics: Power, Politics and Institutional Design (2007) and Economic Interdependence in Ukrainian-Russian Relations (1999). His article on the consequences of the Donbas conflict in Ukraine’s 2019 elections is forthcoming in Europe-Asia Studies.

Sir Chris Deverell was a 4* General in the British Army from 2016 to his retirement in 2019, as Commander of Joint Forces Command and one of the UK Chiefs of Staff. In this appointment, his responsibilities included Special Forces, Intelligence, Cyber, Space, Information Systems and Services, Operational Command and Control, Education, Medical Services, and our Joint Operating Bases around the globe. From 2007 to 2016, Sir Chris was employed in a range of capability development and acquisition appointments. In 2011, he joined the Board of Defence Equipment and Support, initially as Strategy Director, and then, on promotion to Lieutenant General in 2013, as Chief of Materiel (Land). In parallel, he served on the Army Board as the Quartermaster General. From 1982 to 2007, Chris served in operational roles in the 2nd Royal Tank Regiment during the Cold War, and in Northern Ireland, Cyprus and Belize; in the Permanent Joint Headquarters; in HQ US Central Command in Florida and Qatar; and in command of 4 Armoured Brigade, initially in Iraq and then in Germany. This period included serving as a Private Secretary to George Robertson, Secretary of State for Defence, and as the Commanding Officer of the Joint Nuclear Biological and Chemical Regiment. He is now pursuing a portfolio career and is a Venture Partner in a US Cybersecurity VC, an Advisor to various businesses in Defence and other sectors, including Dataminr, Interos, Nodes and Links, and Helsing. He is also a Mentor in the Creative Destruction Lab at the Saïd Business School in Oxford, and an External Member of the Council of Oxford University. He has an MA in Politics, Philosophy and Economics from Oxford and is a Knight Commander of the Order of Bath.

Hanna Hopko is an expert in advocacy, on Russian expansionism and hybrid warfare. From 2014-2019, she chaired the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Ukrainian Parliament. Hopko was one of the civic leaders of the EuroMaidan during Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity. Ms. Hopko was elected to Parliament from the pro-European Self-Reliance Party in 2014 and later served as an independent MP.

In 2014, Foreign Policy magazine named Ms. Hopko a “Leading Global Thinker”. That same year, she received the “Certificate of Merit” from Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service Leadership Seminar and was honoured with the National Democratic Institute Democracy Award for her efforts to further the cause of democracy in Ukraine.

She has spoken on security issues at forums hosted by Canada, such as the 95th Rose-Roth Seminar of the Canadian NATO Parliamentary Association held in Kyiv and was the keynote speaker alongside Canada’s Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland at the 2019 Ukraine Reform Conference in Toronto sponsored by Global Affairs Canada.

Hanna belongs to Young Global Leaders Networks of WEF ( World Economic Forum) and Munich Security Conference.

Taras Kuzio is a Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and Professor in the Department of Political Science, National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy. His previous positions were at the University of Alberta, George Washington University, and University of Toronto, International Institute of Strategic Studies, and School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University. Taras Kuzio holds a PhD in political science from the University of Birmingham, England, an MA in Area Studies (USSR, Eastern Europe) from the School of Slavonic and East European Studies, University of London, and a BA in Economics from the School of European Studies, University of Sussex. He held a Post-Doctoral Fellowship at Yale University. Taras Kuzio is the author and editor of 22 books, 38 book chapters and over 130 scholarly articles on Soviet, Eurasian, Russian, and Ukrainian politics, colour revolutions, nationalism, geopolitics, and international relations.

Helena Ivanov is a PhD Candidate in International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science and an Associate Fellow at The Henry Jackson Society. Her research focuses on the relationship between propaganda and violence against civilians. In her thesis, Helena examined the role propaganda played during the Yugoslav Wars and produced a model for studying propaganda which details the key phases, functions, discourses, and techniques of propaganda (the model itself is applicable to other contexts). Additionally, Helena also served as a Manager at the Centre for International Studies at the LSE.

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EVENT SUMMARY

On the 17^th March 2022, Helena Ivanov, Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, Professor Paul D’Anieri, Professor at the University of California, Dr Taras Kuzio, Professor at the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy, Dr Olena Halushka, board member of the Anti-Corruption Action Centre Kyiv, discussed what the range of options the West can use to help Ukraine beat back the Russian invasion.

Helena Ivanov began the discussion by introducing the speakers and topic of discussion. Professor D’Anieri discussed the current impact of sanctions on the Russian war effort and how it is impacting morale, Russia’s ability to sustain the war and how it will also deter further military adventurism. He argued that a No-Fly zone is to provocative and suggest the west should focus on supplying Ukraine and speeding up its accession to the EU. Dr Halushka spoke about how the west tried to prevent this war and how the west should have sanctioned Russia sooner. She also argued that sanctions would not have been pre-emptive based on Russia’s pre-war terror campaign. Dr Kuzio spoke about how western experts vastly overestimated strength of the Russian army and underestimated the Ukrainians. He then spoke the possibility of establishing safe zone in Western Ukraine and the potential for greater sanctions on Russian oil and gas. He also argued that the UN should entice Russian POW’s to defect and testify against their officers and politicians in any potential war crimes trial as well as arguing that the West should openly advocate for regime change in Russia.

The discussion then closed with a series of questions from the audience including, what are the concessions that either side can make, why the west was so slow in responding to Ukraine, what Zelesky’s impact has been and what is the West’s red line for Ukraine.

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