Just as they were on the cusp of democratisation and normalisation of relations with democratic partners in the region, Sudan’s progress has tragically been put on hold. Since 15 April 2023, Sudan has exploded into violence, causing widespread fear throughout the country with over 100,000 Sudanese fleeing across the borders, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). As Sudan had been preparing to establish a civilian government, negotiations on the terms of such an establishment deteriorated due to power struggles between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary faction Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Daglo.
This breakdown in dialogue has led to aggression edging on all-out civil war, posing great concern across the globe, due both to the threats to regional stability and the prospect of a severe refugee crisis. The SAF and RSF leadership agreed to a 7-day ceasefire this week, but there is little confidence that it could completely halt tensions.
The international community, however, is working to stem the violence. On 1 May, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres appointed Clementine Nkweta-Salami of Cameroon as Deputy Special Representative for Sudan, and Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Sudan, to work with the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS). UNITAMS was established on 3 June 2020 to support the Sudanese democratic transition.
While it may appear at the moment that supporting the democratisation of Sudan is a wasted effort and a fool’s errand in light of the explosion of internal warring factions and a potential humanitarian emergency, a democratic Sudan is vital, not just to its citizens, but also to the wider region, whose powers were coming to rely on the prospect of a peaceful Sudan.
UN Secretary-General Guterres has warned against the crisis in Sudan expanding beyond its borders and disrupting its neighbours currently engaged in peace processes and democratic initiatives. Guterres stated this week, “It is absolutely essential to massively support Chad in the present situation. On the other hand, we have other countries in the region in their own peace processes. Ethiopia is in a peace process. It is absolutely essential to avoid any spillover from Sudan to Ethiopia.”
Others in the region have an interest in preserving the hopes of democracy in Sudan as well.
Prior to this latest eruption of violence, in January 2021 Sudan had ratified the Abraham Accords – a series of normalisation agreements between Israel and various countries. Sudan’s signing of the Accords led to them being removed from the U.S. State Department’s list of “State-Sponsors of Terrorism”, as well as having received financial assistance from the U.S. to pay down Sudan’s debts to the World Bank – important steps towards a broad demonstration of democratic interest for their country.
Sudan, however, only signed the declarative section of the Accords in 2021 and not the corresponding bilateral normalisation agreement between the two countries, as the UAE and Bahrain had done. A few months ago, in February 2023, Sudan and Israel had finalized a bilateral agreement which would lead to full diplomatic relations. They were expected to sign the agreement in Washington following a transfer of power from the military to a civilian government in Khartoum. However, just as plans began to unfold, the latest aggression in the country stymied any possibility for immediate steps forward.
In attempts to salvage the peace process, the Israeli government in Jerusalem reached out to both the SAF and RSF at the end of April, offering to mediate an agreement between the two. Ultimately, it was U.S. and Saudi mediators who have now brokered an already fragile ceasefire, the ultimate success of which is still unknown.
With the spread of recent violence threatening the stability of this entire, strategically-vital region, it is right to keep hopes alive for a democratic Sudan, despite the difficulties. Only under civilian government, on friendly terms with Israel and its other near-neighbours, will peace be guaranteed.
You can contact Elizabeth Samson via email: [email protected]