Russia, under Vladimir Putin, poses the most significant threat to European security since the Cold War, employing a combination of military aggression, cyberwarfare, political subversion, energy blackmail and economic coercion as part of a comprehensive hybrid warfare strategy.
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, repeated nuclear threats, sabotage operations across Europe, and disinformation campaigns highlight the Kremlin’s intention to undermine the post-Cold War European order and challenge the West’s political cohesion.
With the return of Donald Trump to the White House and America’s drift towards isolationism, Europe cannot rely on the transatlantic alliance to guarantee security. This demands an urgent strategic shift to a Europe-centred security framework.
Appeasement or renewed diplomatic engagement with the Kremlin is counterproductive. Historical patterns show that Russia exploits concessions to gain strategic ground, encouraging further aggression.
This report calls for a bold and proactive European strategy to destabilise the Kremlin, reduce Russia’s capacity to project power, and reinforce European unity and resilience.
Thus, European states must develop five strategic pillars to destabilise the Kremlin.
- Economic Warfare: Maintain and tighten sanctions, enforce secondary sanctions, and prepare for potential American sanctions rollback; repurpose frozen Russian assets for Ukraine’s defence reconstruction; drain Russia’s economy of talent by incentivising elite defection and brain drain; cut remaining trade ties and reduce energy dependency on Russia.
- Support Russian Opposition and Dissent: Empower Russian exiled opposition with funding, security, and political support; maintain access to YouTube, Telegram, and independent Russian media via VPNs, mirror sites, and circumvention tools; expose elite corruption and promote defections in the regime and security services.
- Cyber and Covert Operations: Support sabotage efforts within Russia’s territory to disrupt logistics and defence production; deploy cyberattacks against Kremlin controlled networks, banks, and media; conduct psychological operations to deepen paranoia within Putin’s inner circle and highlight regime weaknesses.
- Engaging Russia’s Neighbours: Deepen political, military, and economic ties with countries like Moldova, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Armenia; reduce Moscow’s influence in Central Asia through infrastructure investment and trade alternatives; handle discussions of separatist movements inside Russia with caution to avoid strengthening Kremlin narratives.
- Shaping Global Perceptions: Challenge Russia’s influence in the Global South by offering investment, debt relief, and non-exploitative partnerships; target Russia’s operations in Africa and expose Russian manipulation in Latin America and Asia; peel away India and China’s strategic cooperation with Russia through targeted diplomacy and trade incentives.
