Russia and Russian groups such as the Wagner Group have been active in the Sahel, especially the “Coup Belt” countries of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. The extent to which Russian activity was weakening governance, driving terrorism and pushing outward migration was examined. It was found that countries with a Russia/Wagner presence had higher terrorism risks than neighbouring countries without such a presence. Furthermore, states with a Russia/Wagner presence were found to be more fragile, and there were often surges in outward migration towards Europe from these countries. Russian disinformation was used to undermine precoup leaders, setting the stage for pro-Russian coups, whose activities were supported by further disinformation. The consequences for the West of Russian destabilisation of the Sahel were discussed.
