by Michael McManus
Stories are emerging that Vladimir Putin has become increasingly fearful on the eve of this month’s Victory Day commemorations. According to reports in the press, the intelligence services of an unnamed EU state have found evidence Putin has become more secretive. The two main drivers appear to be concerns over Ukrainian strikes into Russia and Moscow becoming more effective and even fears that members of the Russian elite may be plotting to oust Putin. Whatever the truth of these allegations, Vladimir Putin no longer feels as secure as he once did. And with good reason.
On May 9th, Russia commemorated “Victory Day”, the most important public holiday in the country. Marking the end of World War Two, the event involved a large military parade in Red Square, attended by Putin and other high-ranking officials. Putin took no chances. For the first time ever, large pieces of military equipment did not feature in the parade, due to fears that Ukrainian long-range drones would strike them. Furthermore, a large number of Russian parliamentarians were not invited to the parade.
Putin’s movements have dramatically changed in recent weeks. He has refused to take personal visits at his residences. He spends increasing amounts of time in secure bunkers in the Krasnodar region. His cooks, chauffeurs, and bodyguards are subject to additional screening and monitoring. His staff are forbidden from using mobile phones around him. He no longer attends in-person press conferences such as the Valdai circle, instead releasing press releases and statements via pre-recorded messages filmed in secure and secret locations.
Russian authorities have also restricted the internet. While this does occasionally happen anyway, Russia has done this more frequently since Ukraine’s highly successful and daring “Operation Spiderweb” attacks in June 2025. This operation saw over 100 Ukrainian drones penetrate deep into Russia and strike several high-value targets. According to the Financial Times, the depth and impact of the Operation Spiderweb attacks deeply rattled Vladimir Putin, and he fears a repeat. The Kremlin hopes that by restricting the internet and SMS services it can prevent Ukraine from using devices to detonate bombs or guide drones.
Vladimir Putin is no longer as secure as he was in the past. Boasts that Ukraine would be steamrolled in a matter of days failed to materialise, and courageous and daring Ukrainian resistance has instead humbled the Russian armed forces for the last four years. The Russian economy, once the world’s eight largest, has slithered down the rankings as sanctions and divestment bite the economy hard. Russian authorities have cracked down hard on dissidents as frustration at war failure, high body counts, and economic pain boils over. No leader, not even one as entrenched as Vladimir Putin, can resist this pressure permanently.
Churchill once joked of the enigma that was attempting to understand Russia from the outside. But even from a distance it is clear the Russian leader no longer feels as secure as he once did. The new security procedures could be generalised responses to wartime risk. Or they could be due to necessity as Ukraine grows in confidence and accuracy. Perhaps the security changes are due to a more specific threat, such as preventing a coup. Putin has criticised military leaders for failing to defeat Ukraine, and he must be aware ambitious generals may draw a line. Russian history has shown that military reversals can trigger coups and revolutions. Perhaps another upheaval, caused this time by Russia’s reversals in Ukraine, will be in its future.
