Dr Bahram Ghiassee is a London-based nuclear analyst, visiting academic at University of Surrey, and Associate Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.
Attacks on nuclear and radiological facilities and the subsequent release of radioactivity pose significant risks to the public, the economy, the environment and ecological systems, both nationally and transnationally.
The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has expressed ‘deep concern’ regarding the humanitarian and environmental consequences of recent strikes on Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). In this context, the head of the World Health Organisation (WHO) has also warned that such strikes ‘could trigger a nuclear accident, with health impacts that would devastate generations’.
Since the start of the recent war between the US-Israel and Iran, on 28 February 2026, nuclear-related facilities have come under renewed aerial attacks, across Iran. Arak Heavy Water Production Plant, Fordow facilities, Isfahan Nuclear Complex, and Natanz facilities have been hit. These facilities were significantly damaged by Israel and the US in June 2025, during the 12-day war. The Ardakan Yellowcake Production Plant in Central Iran, where uranium ore is converted into uranium oxide, was also struck earlier in March.
As regards the humanitarian and environmental impacts of the aerial attacks, damage to Arak Plant would have had minimal consequences, as Heavy Water is not a radioactive material. The Fordow uranium enrichment facility is built some 60 meters beneath a mountain, and release of radioactivity would have been localised. Also, uranium, be it natural or enriched, is slightly radioactive, and poses limited risks, unless inhaled over prolonged periods. Similarly, damage to physical integrity of uranium enrichment facilities at the Natanz site, built a few meters underground, would not have resulted in significant impacts. The same may be said regarding the damaged Ardakan plant.
However, repeated strikes on the Isfahan Complex could have resulted in the release of radioactive particles into the atmosphere, as it contains an array of nuclear facilities, four small research reactors, laboratories, and high-activity sealed radioactive sources. Depending on the wind direction, airborne radioactive particles could have reached the city of Isfahan, 20 kilometres away, posing significant societal and environmental risks.
To date, Tehran Nuclear Research Center has not been attacked. Established in 1960s in the outskirts of Tehran, and now encroached by the sprawling city, it houses Tehran Research Reactor, built in 1967, radioisotope production facilities, and nuclear-related laboratories. A strike on the reactor could have devastating impacts on the densely populated city of Tehran. Also, attack on the Karaj Radioactive Waste Storage facility, some 40 kilometres west of Tehran, could result in release of radioactivity into the environment, contamination of the Karaj river, and harm to the two million inhabitants of Karaj.
Most alarming is the risk posed to the physical integrity of the Bushehr NPP, situated on the northern shores of the Persian Gulf. Over the past four weeks, the periphery of the Plant had been hit by shrapnel and other projectiles on four occasions, the latest of which had caused the death of an Iranian security personnel, and damage to an auxiliary building. Any damage to the auxiliary power supply, the Cooling Water system, or the reactor itself could result in a Fukushima-like nuclear accident which occurred in 2011, in Japan. As a precautionary measure, the Russian Federation has evacuated most of its nationals who were assisting with the operation of the nuclear plant, and the construction of the second and third nuclear reactors on the Bushehr site.
Bushehr NPP, which is currently in operation, has a similar design to Fukushima. It contains over 75 tonnes of uranium fuel rods and some175 tonnes of spent (used) fuel which are highly radioactive. A nuclear accident could result in extensive release of radioactivity into the atmosphere and the marine environment of the Persian Gulf. The radioactive fallout, and contaminated waters could subsequently reach the cities and coastal areas of the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), in particular Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, affecting water desalination plants, fishing, oil & gas production, and shipping for a prolonged period.
An attack on the Bushehr NPP may prompt Iran to retaliate against (i) Saudi Arabia’s nascent nuclear research centre, near the capital city of Riyadh; (ii) Baraka Nuclear Power Plant, in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which houses four nuclear reactors; and (iii) Israel’s nuclear research centres and the Dimona nuclear research reactor. The potential humanitarian, economic, environmental, and ecological implications could be highly significant for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
Diplomatic efforts at regional and international levels need to be instituted urgently to avert a catastrophic nuclear accident; to alleviate the hostilities which are undermining the national security of the countries in the region; and to mitigate the risks posed to the global economy. The current fragile ceasefire and the lull in the hostilities provide an ample opportunity for a negotiated settlement, and the diplomatic resolution of the conflict.
