This project examines the Arctic’s potential to help the West reduce its structural dependency on China for critical minerals. At present, Western economies remain dangerously reliant on Chinese supply chains, with few viable short-term alternatives. The long-term outlook is equally troubling: demand for critical minerals is set to rise sharply in the coming decades, driven by the energy transition and technological innovation, while China has already secured extensive access to these resources across much of the world through its Belt and Road Initiative.
Against this backdrop, one region has emerged as a potential long-term strategic solution: the Arctic. Once remote, largely inhospitable and of limited economic interest, the region has moved rapidly to the centre of geopolitical attention. President Trump’s threat to acquire Greenland – an idea firmly rejected by Greenland itself and NATO allies – served as a catalyst, pushing the island, and its mineral potential, to the top of the international agenda. As policymakers and experts have increasingly recognised Greenland’s strategic importance, this report argues that the same logic will soon extend to the wider Arctic. By around 2040, Arctic summers are expected to be largely ice-free, unlocking vast reserves of resources that are currently inaccessible. Russia and China are acutely aware of this shift, and the Arctic is already emerging as a new arena of great-power competition.
This report contends that the Arctic represents a once-in-a-generation opportunity for the West to reduce its dependence on China for critical minerals – but only if this opportunity is pursued strategically and responsibly. To that end, it advances four key policy recommendations. First, it calls for strong, stable and unified cooperation among Western partners in the Arctic, in clear contrast to coercive or unilateral approaches. Second, it argues for substantial and early investment in the region, as timely financial commitments are essential to accelerating exploration and development. Third, it supports the continued restriction of Chinese investment by European Arctic states in order to protect long-term strategic and economic interests. Finally, and most critically, it emphasises that all Arctic activity must adhere to the highest environmental, legal and regulatory standards, and remain fully aligned with the West’s commitment to the rule of law and meaningful engagement with local communities
