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All autocracies want to control access to information. By doing so, they can control narratives, reinforce their propaganda claims, and prevent competing information from reaching citizens.
China has its feared “Great Firewall of China” that strongly filters and monitors internet traffic in and out of the wider world. North Korea allows high ranking party officials limited internet access, albeit only to the closed Kwangmyong network of government approved sites. Iran’s mullahs routinely throttle and restrict internet traffic.
Now Russia has built its own Great Firewall and it is very comprehensive.
In the last two weeks, a series of internet and mobile phone service outages have occurred across Russia. Russian sources have reported such outages in multiple Russian regions. Moscow typically justifies these on security grounds.
According to the Kremlin, Ukrainian drones use LTE data from mobile phones to help navigate and hit targets. As a result, the Kremlin says these cuts are essential to prevent attacks.
Drones typically rely on other communications channels. The real reason Russia is cutting mobile phone access is to crack down on internal dissent and to monitor the population more closely.
Internal dissent in Russia is something Moscow fears greatly.
Russian history has proven that if a war goes badly wrong, it can lead to popular unrest that topples the government. In 1917, the disastrous setbacks of World War I, meant to be “over by Christmas” set the stage for the Tsar’s downfall. In the 1990s, Yeltsin’s fumbling in the First Chechen War helped topple Russia’s fragile democracy and pave the way for Putin.
Better than most, Putin’s inner circle realises that as the “special military operation” in Ukraine stumbles, casualties mount, and economic pressure from war and sanctions build, the Putin regime could be the next name on the list of fallen Russian regimes.
All the more reason to spy on citizens.
Ever since 2019, Russia has worked on building what the Kremlin calls a “sovereign internet”. In essence, an attempt by Moscow to create internet architecture that is as tightly under its control as possible. The invasion of Ukraine, and western sanctions, have led Russia to speed run the creation of this closed-off internet. In July, Russia debated banning WhatsApp and criminalising certain internet searches, mostly those linked to Russian dissidents overseas. Moscow’s original plan was that by 2026, Russia’s federal communications regulator Roskomnadzor would be able to disconnect this “sovereign internet” from external websites or services. Recent plans include the use of apps like “Max” intended to centralise control over citizens behaviour.
When Russia invaded Ukraine, western social media was blacked out. Roskomnadzor blocked access to Facebook and Instagram shortly after the invasion of Ukraine, and strongly restricted access to other platforms. These platforms had, at one time, been a major window on the outside world for Russians. The last thing Moscow wanted was for this window to remain open as it waged war on a western ally in Ukraine.
The invasion of Ukraine has served as the first serious test run of Russia’s ability and willingness to throttle information.
Ironically, the “sovereign internet” may end up actually reducing the Kremlin’s control of its captive population. The economic impact of these internet shutdowns is reported to cost the Russian economy $250 million per month. Unable to pay bills or purchase and sell online, more Russians are reverting to cash payments. Unlike online transactions that are under the Kremlin’s watchful eye, cash transactions are not.
If the frustrated population are increasingly operating outside of Russian state surveillance for economic reasons, it is probable they are doing so for political reasons.
Indeed, there is evidence of more dissent and even vandalism and sabotage within Russia. Perhaps it is somewhat ironic that by attempting to control its population more closely, Russia has made it more difficult to control dissent.
- Michael McManus is The Henry Jackson Society’s Director of Research
