Photo credit: Reuters
An explosion on a railway line in Poland has been traced back to Russia. Polish President Donald Tusk told NATO allies that Poland’s “worst suspicions” about whether this was deliberate have since been confirmed.
This was no accident. This was a deliberate attack.
The railway line between Warsaw and Lublin was damaged by sabotage at a point close to the border with Ukraine. It is almost guaranteed that the attack was intended to disrupt Polish support to Ukraine. This railway had been a key artery providing support to Ukraine. NATO support has been critical in keeping Ukraine in the fight against Russia, and Russia would have an obvious desire to disrupt this support by any means it can.
This attack is yet another example of Russian “behind enemy lines” activity against NATO.
Here in Britain, a gang was convicted in July 2025 of a March arson attack against a warehouse that was storing aid to Ukraine. The attack, perpetrated by three British nationals, caused £1 million in damages. The trial revealed that the attack may have been done by British nationals but crucially, had been arranged by the Russian mercenary “Wagner Group”.
Sabotaging the industry that supports your enemies has a long history. During the First World War, the Kaiser’s men carried out sabotage attacks on American factories providing arms to Britain. One attack led to the permanent closure of the torch of the Statue of Liberty.
The danger of sabotage was considered so strategically serious, that in the UK, arson in a Royal dockyard remained punishable by death in the UK until 1971, six years after the death penalty had been abolished for murder.
Polish authorities announced the perpetrators of the railway attack were Ukrainian nationals hired by Russia. Russia often uses third-party proxies, as was the case with the arson attack in London.
Like all autocracies, Russia likes to work through proxies, allowing it one-person-removed plausible deniability if the actions of these proxies are revealed. By using proxies, Russia hopes to stay just beneath the threshold required for NATO to consider its actions an “armed attack” worthy of Article 5 retaliation.
The sabotage attack reveals Russia’s potential and ambition – and its desperation. As Ukrainian drone and missiles increasingly target Russia, the Kremlin wishes to strike back. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he already considered NATO to be at war with Russia. As a result, Russia has escalated its campaign against NATO. We have seen this with a surge in drone incursions against European airports. It is one thing to send a drone buzzing dangerously across a flight path. It is another to burn down warehouse or blow up railway lines.
It is clear that Russia’s appetite for aggression is increasing. Moscow is frustrated it has not been able to break through in Ukraine. As its economy teeters under the pressure of supporting endless war, it needs to take more drastic action.
The Henry Jackson Society (HJS) has found Russia is using mass migration as a weapon to try and even the odds strategically. Russia has a long history of disinformation campaigns against the West, and HJS has warned that Russia armed with AI could be even more convincing and large-scale in disinformation.
Frankly, the temperature is rising dangerously. The media in the UK has already joined the dots. Drone incursions, bomb scares, arson attacks, and now railway bombings have raised the stakes dramatically. Despite these provocations, NATO remains restrained. But Russia will not stop poking, provoking, and testing. NATO must be vigilant against further attacks which sadly, seem almost guaranteed to come.
- Michael McManus is Director of Research at The Henry Jackson Society
