Experts have long warned that Arctic summers are likely to be largely ice-free by 2040. This will open up significant new opportunities – from shorter global transit routes to access to a region long known to be rich in natural resources.
For the West, the Arctic presents a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reduce its dependence on China for critical minerals. At present, China controls around 60 per cent of global supply and roughly 90 per cent of processing capacity. Although efforts have been made to diversify supply chains, they have not gone far enough to loosen Beijing’s grip. Expanding domestic mining is politically contentious across much of the West and, even where approved, takes years to deliver results. Turning to alternative suppliers is also increasingly difficult, as China has secured strong positions in many mineral-rich countries. Recycling rare earth elements offers some mitigation, but nowhere near enough to meet demand. Most concerning of all, demand for critical minerals is set to rise exponentially as countries strive to meet their Net Zero 2050 commitments, for which these materials are indispensable.
The risks of relying on China are self-evident. Beijing has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to weaponise its dominance. Its use of export restrictions began in 2010 in a dispute with Japan and has since intensified. More recently, China has imposed further controls on critical mineral exports amid its ongoing trade tensions with the United States, with repercussions felt across a range of American industries.
In the longer term, the Arctic offers a genuine opportunity to build more secure and independent supply chains. Crucially, unlike in many other parts of the world, China has thus far failed to establish a firm foothold in the Arctic, despite describing itself as a “near-Arctic state” – a claim with little basis in geography. This relative absence is largely due to European Arctic states rejecting a number of Chinese investment proposals on security grounds. Nowhere else does the West have such a clear chance not only to develop alternative sources of critical minerals but also to prevent China from consolidating control.
However, how this opportunity is pursued will matter as much as whether it is pursued at all. Approaches based on coercion or threats – such as recent suggestions by President Trump of annexing Greenland – are immoral, unlawful and strategically counterproductive. They risk fracturing Western unity at a moment of acute geopolitical strain.
Instead, our report sets out four key recommendations. First, it calls for a coordinated Western strategy to secure critical minerals in the Arctic. Secondly, it emphasises the importance of early and sustained investment, particularly in exploration. Thirdly, it emphasises the need for European Arctic states to remain resilient in the face of Chinese investment offers – a stance made more viable through increased Western investment in the region. Finally, it insists that all Arctic mining operations adhere strictly to Western principles: robust labour protections, the highest environmental standards, and meaningful consultation with – and consent from – local and Indigenous communities, who will be most directly affected.
The West must seize this opportunity – but it must do so in the right way.
This month, the Henry Jackson Society published its latest report on the Arctic scramble, you can find here.
