Ukraine is famously cold and temperatures can regularly drop to minus 20 degrees Celsius in winter. This winter, the temperatures reached minus 24 degrees. Against this backdrop, access to reliable energy to heat homes and hospitals was especially vital. But true to form, Putin has tried to increase human misery by deliberately targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. His hope is that Ukraine will basically be frozen into surrender.
Attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid have been frequent, but have evolved. Between 2022 and 2024, attacks were generally aimed at the parts of energy grid that transmit power. But as Russia has floundered and failed to make ground, attacks have also targeted assets of power generation, which are far harder to repair and replace. By late 2024, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that almost two-thirds of its pre-war power generation capacity was damaged due to deliberate and repeated Russian targeting.
The shocking truth is that these attacks are now following a regular pattern. The attacks are not random. Every winter since the war began, Russian drone and missile attacks on power plants and sub-stations increased, proving these attacks are deliberate and strategic. It demonstrates particular ruthlessness to target power generation in a cold country in winter, knowing the civilian population will pay the price.
Russia has been using a variety of assets to attack power stations. These assets have included Kalibr and Iskander ballistic missiles, and Iranian-designed Shahed drones. Russia has begun producing its own domestic equivalent of the Shahed, the Geran to continue these attacks. By producing its own variant, Russia can continue its merciless attacks on Ukraine and its citizens. While initially slow to employ its own drones in war, Russia has now grasped the critical role they play on the modern battlefield.
In addition to kinetic assets, Russia has activated its infamous cyber army, including the notorious Sandworm collective, to target the IT infrastructure and systems of Ukraine’s power grid. And NATO is next. Indeed, late last year saw Sandworm target Poland’s energy grid with a “wiper” attack, an exceptionally aggressive form of attack. The Henry Jackson Society recently published a paper on the threat of Russian cyber actors against Ukraine and NATO’s critical infrastructure, including Russia’s threat to our own energy grid. These attacks by hackers have been so severe that the International Criminal Court (ICC) has hinted that they could constitute war crimes.
Make no mistake – Vladimir Putin’s frustration at failing to breakthrough in Ukraine has led to increasingly vindictive tactics. These tactics have ranged from forced transportation of Ukrainian children to drone attacks on energy grids, knowing full well it will lead to cold-related deaths. But the Ukrainian people continue to endure with stoic courage. It will take more than a chilly evening to dampen the spirits of Ukraine and its people.
