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Migration is not usually thought of as a weapon. But to the Kremlin, it has become yet another instrument of war – a means of destabilising its enemies in the democratic West. A new report by the Henry Jackson Society reveals clear evidence that Russia deliberately engineers migration surges to pressure NATO states and compensate for its battlefield reversals in Ukraine. Weaponising migration is not new. From Atilla the Hun driving tribes across the Roman frontier to divide the empire, to modern dictators manipulating refugees, aggressors have long understood how to turn human movement into a political tool. What is new is the systemic, state-level precision Russia now applies this tactic.
This practice – known as “instrumentalised migration” – sits within the “grey zone” of modern conflict: hostile actions designed to harm an adversary while staying just below the threshold of open warfare. Migrants are not the aggressors, they are how aggression is carried out.
Starting in 2021, Belarus, acting as Russia’s proxy, relaxed entry rules for migrants from the Middle East and Africa, channelling them towards the borders of Poland and other NATO states. The goal was simple: send starving and desperate migrants towards NATO, and if they are pushed back, attack NATO for being intolerant to migrants. If they were accepted, watch as social tensions in NATO countries increase. Either outcome served Russia’s aims: to divide Europe, distract NATO and weaken Western unity.
When Russia invaded Ukraine the following year, this hybrid tactic was adopted enthusiastically, especially once it became clear that the “special military operation” meant to last days would take more effort.
Our report shows that surges along the EU’s Eastern frontier are not random. The rise and fall with Russia’s fortunes on the battlefield and its experience of Western sanctions. When Russian casualties mount or sanctions bite – particularly against its oil industry or its ally Belarus – the Kremlin turns up the pressure, funnelling desperate people toward Europe’s borders. When its military position improves, the flows ease.
The statistics from EU border agency FRONTEX show that there has been a 200% increase in migrant arrivals on the EU’s Eastern Borders in the period that Russia launched its aggression against Ukraine – even as numbers fell across traditional routes like the Mediterranean. The explanation is clear – Moscow is manufacturing these crises to distract NATO forces, stretch EU cohesion and retaliate for Ukraine’s resilience.
Each new wave serves a dual purpose. Internationally, it sows discord and diverts attention from Russian battlefield failures. Domestically, it feeds the Kremlin’s propaganda machine, allowing it to accuse the West of hypocrisy – alternately cruel for rejecting migrants or decadent for accepting them. Either way, Russia wins twice.
The Henry Jackson Society’s analysis is the first to quantify when and why the Kremlin chooses to use migration as a weapon. It demonstrates that these movements are deliberate acts of statecraft, not humanitarian accidents. Recognising this pattern is essential if Western governments are to defend both their borders and their values.
For NATO and the EU, the lesson is stark. Migration spikes at moments of Russian weakness should no longer be treated as coincidences or purely humanitarian crises. They may signal hybrid operations designed to create instability, sap resources and erode public trust. Intelligence cooperation, sanctions coordination and rapid-response border mechanisms must all adapt to this new reality.
This is not a call to harden hearts against those in genuine need, but to understand the cruelty of those who exploit them. The Kremlin’s manipulation of human suffering is a reminder that hybrid warfare targets compassion itself – turning empathy into a vulnerability.
If the free world can anticipate and expose these tactics, it can blunt one of Moscow’s most cynical weapons. The West must remain vigilant – not just at its borders, but in its awareness that modern war is fought as much with people as with guns.
- MIchael McManus is the Henry Jackson Society’s Director of Research
