DATE: 13:00 – 14:00, 9th May 2017
VENUE: The Henry Jackson Society, 26th Floor, Millbank Tower, 21-24 Millbank, London, SW1P 4QP
SPEAKER: Bill Emmott
EVENT CHAIR: Dr Alan Mendoza
Dr Alan Mendoza
Right, OK, now welcome everybody to today’s event on this marvellous book that sits in front of me The Fate of the West by Bill Emmott. Now I suppose Bill a sort of strong title for unusual times I think it is fair to say but you’ve had less an unusual career than a stellar career I would say. It’s been 26 years at the Economist culminating in Editor in Chief so knows a bit about the fate of the world indeed and the west in that kind of regard. Interesting sort of selection of films you’ve produced, 13 books I think it was one case about the strange death of Europe or something like that which could come into this I am sure the discussion in that way. Of course you’re now chairing the foundation which is called the Wake Up foundation which is a charity dedicated to using film, text and events to spread awareness of the decline of Western societies and promote reforms to help it.
So I think we have an expert on our hands here I’m going to leave Bill to discuss more but just to say afterwards I’m sure Bill will be happy to sign copies and we’re selling them at a very special rate of £10 outside. So Bill, over to you.
Bill Emmott
Thank you. Thank you very much Alan and let me first of all apologise for having arrived late. I have a least a moderately reasonable excuse which is that my train was delayed by swans on the line at Maidenhead so I think the conductor who announced that took great pleasure in telling us it wasn’t the usual reasons. I would secondly like to stress that the objective of my little foundation which principally uses film a great European disaster movie and a new film that’s coming soon on the migrant crisis, the objective of it is to help public education to avoid decline of the west rather than encourage it…
Dr Alan Mendoza
I’m reading your sleeve…
Bill Emmott
Well if they wrote what you read out they should be fired the publisher. Anyway the fate of the west is in bad hands in that case. So to be serious the question which I seek to address in the book is about the current let’s say pessimism or concern in liberal democracies in Europe, America and Japan about our futures partly exemplified by some of the election decisions that have been made by citizens where I think Trump leading to Brexit but certainty the rivalry of Marine Le Pen in France but also a general sense of anger, grievance and anxiety about the future of our democracies and our societies and a sense of at least potential decline. The issue it seems to me surrounding this is whether this is basically a structural issue, is just our time past was Oswald Spengler right in his decline of the west in 1918 that our civilisation moment was coming to an end even if he got it about 100 years too early or is this reparable is this simply a question of the usual cycle of mistakes and then repairs.
Secondly as we debate these questions is the open society that we have celebrated in the west and developed sustainable in the face of globalisation, in the face of technology, in the face of migration perhaps from Africa and the Middle East and then the catch all question are western particular European countries somehow doomed to decline rather as like might be said by a character from the old dads army sitcoms.
So what are my answers in the book to open a discussion that we can have here. I mean the answer is in my view that and I’m always an optimist that these problems that we see before us are indeed repairable, we do not suffer from as it were an ineluctable structural problem but clearly big mistakes have been made. It is not simply that so called liberals need to speak more loudly and use simpler language to the voters to make them convinced that really all things are going in a good direction actually big mistakes have been made most particularly I think we should contribute most of our current angst to the 2007/2008 financial crisis, the crash that was after all the worst financial crisis in 80 years that was saved from causing a great depression only by massive intervention from government spending and by central banks but that also reflected I believe a fundamental distortion in policy making ahead of the crisis because of the over winning power of the financial sector on both sides of the Atlantic and in continental Europe the power of the banking and financial sector and of what I think some people might call Oligarchies connected to them. That at least led to a distortion in public policy that led to either a malign neglect after the crash or actually created the crash itself.
But associated with that I argue that the fundamental balance of open societies, of liberal societies has been always a balance between openness to facilitate change, facilitate progress, to bring in new ideas, new elites, but also equality in the sense of equality of rights, citizenship and participation and that I believe that in the run up to 2008 and then even worse in the 10 years following 2008 we have been guilty in many of our countries of a long term neglect of that equality of rights. Partly I think because of the argument of socialism or because of socialist arguments in which equality was associated with redistribution of like the mantra from each according to their abilities each to their needs which I think rightly became something of a hate symbol since people should get what they deserve largely than necessarily simply what they need. But that closed liberal minds to in the need to foster a sense of openness and equality together rather than just openness.
So is the open society sustainable I believe absolutely it’s sustainable and indeed I think it’s the only solution to the problems that we have problems of technology, problems of competition and of demography but it must be done with two principles in mind. One is the fostering of that sense of equality of citizenship, of participation that I mentioned but secondly with the understanding that not everything has to be open all of the time, that openness is a relative not an absolute term. I believe in particular and perhaps this comes into the Edith Piaf category of reverse yes I do have regrets I think we were far too open to capital movements and to a laissez faire structure in financial markets ahead of 2008 and that reversal of that in substantial part would be justified.
I thinks secondly migration it’s clearly an issue on which absolute openness is never going to achieve total acceptance and that controls on migration are sensible even if I wouldn’t control migration net migration into Britain in the way that the Conservative Party is putting into its manifesto for the third election running of wishing to control net migration to then tens of thousands but nevertheless controls on the speed of migration do make sense and we can discuss exactly what that means separately.
So finally are western countries doomed to decline absolutely not as I’ve suggested we face some stiff headwinds of course particularly because of ageing in our populations but I believe that we have strong advantages if we compare ourselves with non-open and non-western societies. We are already at the technology frontier which is the crucial place to be. We are always flexible and adaptable and most of all we are networked with one another the Western alliances whether in Europe, between European countries or between Europe and America and with all of us to Japan and Korea and Taiwan and other liberal societies are a vital and important asset. The time at which I would start to get worried about the west is if we became less flexible by becoming closed and if we threw away the networks that have been an important asset that has been created since 1945.
Of course more problems will lie ahead. For Mr Macron the key issue is whether or not he will actually address the grievances and anger of the 11 million people, nearly 11 million people who voted for his opponent on Sunday. The key question in Italy will be whether or not the anti-Euro more transversely supported 5 star movement, more transversely supported than Marine Le Pens five star movement manages to get a shot about being in government sometime in the next 8 months. And above all in America the question will be what really is the governing philosophy of Donald Trump and what is he going to do and what will be the reaction to it when it happens. Brexit frankly I don’t give a damn. Thanks a lot.
Dr Alan Mendoza
Well now ok well the gauntlet has been thrown down you’ve covered quite a lot in that and a rather unexpected ending I would say as well. Now Bill’s kindly agreed to kick off the debate as he’s suggested but it is a debate which will require your participation as well so if you would like to make a point or ask a question now is the time to do so. Just identify yourself if you wouldn’t mind so Bill can respond. Yes we will start in the middle…
Question 1
Yeah thank you very much the name’s Euan Grant I’m a former law enforcement intelligence analyst and a regular quoter I stress with permission from your colleague Edward Lucas who I think needs to be listened to on a frankly daily basis. My question first one very quickly is the fact that Brexit I don’t give a damn an indication that you regard the central of the European Union its central institutions as not necessarily a problem but certainly not the solution. Secondly are there any particular networks, you used networks or organisations who are taking on board that things have really gone wrong and are there particular one’s which perhaps are still in denial. I once asked a recently an employer of the Royal Bank of Scotland whether they’d ever heard of a man called Fred Goodwin and the response was no which leads me to doubt the sincerity of the warning signs mafia. Thank you.
Bill Emmott
Well let me I should of course clarify my don’t give a damn response on Brexit which is I do of course give a great, big damn I think that Brexit is an act of self-indulgence and self-harm but I think it’s a sideshow that’s why I said that. I think that Britain’s fate will be affected by Britain’s decision to leave the European Union but not determined by it. I think it’s a mistake to have separated ourselves from this alliance and to have reduced whereby our influence in what happens in our biggest market and our biggest neighbourhood and therefore it is a matter of great regret. But I consider it not to be the end of the story if you like as it where what Britain’s fate will be we now have an open battle over the next twenty years in this country in whether our society really will be open and global and above all working on equality and the relationship it has with all sorts of people and so forth we have eliminated self-imposed constraints on that by choosing to leave the European Union including constraints which reduced, prevented our ability to self-harm by subsidising coal mines and steel companies and all of that. So I wanted to put it in that provocative way in order to say that we are a bit of a side show on this and that are I believe that Brexit is essentially far from being as it where some kind of decision by the masses in rebellion against the political establishment it is an act of political indulgence by the political establishment or at least large parts of it in my view.
So is the European Union the solution or the problem I mean the answer is it’s certainly not the problem it hasn’t been a problem for Britain I don’t think, I don’t think that anybody succeeded in showing that it had been the problem. I think that it has ceased over the last 15 years or so for too much of the continent of Europe to be part of the solution. It has become at best neutral and at worst a problem in the sense that the membership of the Euro and I isolate that as being really the problem has become such a dominant fetishism if you like of policy in fiscal and other policy as to choke off all other potential policies of construction or indeed destruction. During this period of adjustment to the Euro crisis I think the European Union has become paralysed.
So the main sense or worry I have about denial to your second question would be about a continued denial about that which I seek at least strong evidence of in Germany that there is still denial in Germany or at least refusal to accept the need to adjust policies and approaches for the arrival of 6, 7, 8 years since the arrival of the Euro crisis and the desire, the need to make a Europe more of a solution again than a problem. This will be Emmanuel Macron’s biggest issue in Europe at least his real biggest issues are in France but his biggest European issues will be seeking to persuade his partners particularly Germany that change is necessary. And yes certainly I think per your point about inaudible and so forth I think there is a lot of denial in the city and people talking about and regulating the city about the future of regulation.
Dr Alan Mendoza
Ok question here I am going to call them in the order I saw them.
Bill Emmott
I will try and keep my answers shorter but I felt I should go on and on about Brexit despite my comment.
Question 2
Thank you Bill for the most wonderful introduction my name is John Pickup and I’m with my company Avington Systems. We specialise in helping countries do business in China so that’s sort of where I am as it were. I haven’t really thought about it until I’ve sat here looking at this book The Fate of the West what is the west is the question I ask myself. On January 17th a train turned up in Barking that had come all the way from China full of containers full of whatever. I mean there are some people in London who regard Barking as the beginning of the East actually but that’s a bit of the side by the way but what inaudible the west is it democracy but they hang people who are trading in drugs, is Malaysia part of the west it’s a democracy, is Indonesia part of the west it’s a democracy. The fact that a politician has just been sentenced to two years in jail because he was a Christian in a Muslim country. This concept of the west I suggest is an outdated, old-fashioned term and I don’t know what to replace it with but it just seems an easy way of categorising, is America part of the west but they kept a chap in jail for 23 years and then they killed him last week or the week before is that part of the west? Have I said enough to raise the question?
Bill Emmott
Absolutely yes absolutely. So my answer is two-fold one is there is an apology which is to say I remember once at the Economist we once wrote a story about management gurus and one of them was Peter Drucker and he wrote a fabulous fax immediately after to us saying he had long been convinced that the word guru was used in articles like this only because the word charlatan was too long in a newspaper headline. To some degree west of course is the same thing but what do I mean by the west, I mean open, liberal, societies. I don’t simply mean people we like I would say Japan and America and Britain and France are all in the west but each of them do things in different ways.
Why do I include this countries and not China in the west because this is open, accountable, liberal democracies now so whether you chose to execute people or keep them for 23 years on death row or do something that other the Japanese not might like the British doing there within a spectrum we can discuss who should be in the spectrum I think definitely Korea and Taiwan and Indonesia are indeed sort of approaching that spectrum or are close to it but we all vary in this complicity. So the fate of the idea of an open, liberal society is what I wanted to say but that was like charlatan too long to include in a title in the view of both of my publisher and of this old newspaper man.
Dr Alan Mendoza
Yes sir
Question 3
Inaudible.. I’m a member of the Institute for Strategic Studies the think tank…
Bill Emmott
I’m a trustee, thank you.
Question 3
Thank you and I have very brief 3 comments. First USA, President Trump is the biggest problem because we don’t know tomorrow he might say USA’s not part of the west I mean we don’t know but he also doesn’t know so that’s the biggest problem. Euro in my opinion Euro should stop inaudible immigration from Middle East and Africa because then there will be no more Euro after about 30 years. The rate that we start coming and the rate that reach the inaudible population grows these immigrants will create big, big problems and that will put us inaudible within the Euro. In the UK, Brexit in my opinion again I think we all wish the very best for our country having said that I think our politicians have very narrow judgement they demand 1, 2, 3, 4 but are reluctant to except and receive demands from other countries. So I think we will get far worse deal than we would have got if we were a bit more pragmatic, thank you.
Bill Emmott
Ok thank you I will just answer quickly on all of those. First I think…
Dr Alan Mendoza
I think a couple of people didn’t hear the questions the first was about President Trump is he a problem in the thesis here, secondly is immigration going to destroy Europe essentially and thirdly our own politicians inability to negotiate correctly and to strike good deals.
Bill Emmott
I think Trump clearly is an important, unpredictable issue fortunately highly constrained by the American system which is what we have seen in his first 3-4 months in office thank goodness. I think in terms of my analysis we don’t have to see Trump as symptom or as a problem he clearly is a potential problem in his own right but the fact that he was elected is not as it were a random event it is a consequence the way in which American economy and society have developed and I think that is the biggest problem. Yes the second biggest problem is what the hell is he going to Tweet next but that’s how I see it.
Second I absolutely think we have to have controls on immigration from North Africa and the Middle East, we do have controls on immigration from North Africa and the Middle East very strict controls actually and indeed plenty of the asylum seekers are being deported and sent back. So I think we should accept actually that we do have controls but there is a big push to migrate and that is a problem for Europe. We should be having immigration from that part of the world but not unlimited immigration just as no country would never want to have totally unlimited immigration in my view. So we need controls and we need to work on making sure they’re better.
Thirdly I won’t speculate on the nature of the deal the only comment is that when you decide to leave a club going out of the door raising your fingers in a rude gesture you tend not to get a particularly friendly response. So what kind of response comes in the negotiation I don’t know but it’s going to be a key task for British politics in the next two years of course.
Dr Alan Mendoza
Gentleman yes at the back there, yes.
Question 4
Dr Mendoza thank you very much in enlightening us about your thoughts. You diagnosed the disease but you have not found the cure for the disease. You haven’t addressed the west’s relationship with the Middle East, invasion, occupation and destruction of Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq and such countries will not help the west to have an equal society. Whilst the west is destroying the democracy in other countries and supporting the undemocratic regime in the west, in the east, in the Middle East, how can you protect your society because it wants best for the west so why are you destroying other countries society as I said in these countries how can you protect your society this is actually very contradictory. I haven’t read your book but this is actually an issue that you should address…
Dr Alan Mendoza
Could we just take your name…
Question 4
I do not believe that the west is in decline I don’t think that the west will ever be in decline. It is progressing technologically they are inaudible, they have other countries and I think the title of your book is something that should be your relationship with the Muslim world in the Middle East
Dr Alan Mendoza
Could we just take your name?
Question 4
My name is Nisar Al-Shar and I am a journalist by compassion I work for the Evening Standard, The Observer, The Times, The Sunday Times and many other newspapers and magazines.
Bill Emmott
Very good well I mean the main response I can give you is that it is always possible to write a different book but this is the book I’ve written but there is a chapter in the book about foreign policy and our relationship to other countries but my essential analysis in the book is that the problems of the west are essentially internal rather than divisioned by external but I do acknowledge that the failed invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq have contributed to those problems because of the way they were conducted particularly in the case of Iraq and the mistakes that were made there.
Question 5
Timothy Stafford I’m Director of Research at The Henry Jackson Society I haven’t read you book actually I look forward to it but my question is who is getting it right because we’ve talked about the banks, we’ve talked about Trump, we’ve talked about Britain and Brexit where is the intellectual movement going to come from to actually start fixing all of these problems. I recall when the US election happened many people said well Angela Merkel is now the leader of the West, I noticed quite a lot of commentators almost certainly supported Schultz in October so who actually is it, is it the private sector, is it the government, who’s getting it right and doing the best to manage the situation?
Bill Emmott
Well I don’t think I would have a sort of champion’s league of leaders who I would say are getting it right. I think one of the impossible questions usually to answer in these things is a question that starts why don’t we have great leaders like we used to do in the past and then I search my brain and try to remember actually if they were any great leaders in the past. I certainly don’t remember any during my lifetime with the possible exception of Margaret Thatcher who was a great but flawed but nevertheless great. Otherwise I don’t think individuals are what I would focus on I do in the book and analyse countries that have gone through dome of the processes that were going through and have come out of it. Not surprisingly I point to Sweden partly because they had a financial crisis more than 20 years ago therefore they have had enough time to recover from it.
I think that in the solutions we have partly got some of it right since 2008 but we haven’t done enough yet particularly on controlling the financial sector. I think we’re now, if were drawing a conclusion from the trouble we had in the past was we better Brexit then that’s the false conclusion in my view. So in that case I think we’re getting it wrong but as I’ve implied I don’t think that that means that our fate is terrible as a result of it but we’ve just opened up a wider range of potential policy variables.
So I think that Angela Merkel has got things quite badly wrong in management of European policy so let’s see what Mr Macron is like he’s got a lot of things right in his attitudes and his programme although it was cautious his programme but getting it right actually means building a consensus for reform rather than just being one man with a platform.
Dr Alan Mendoza
Great.
Question 6
Ray Cornwall a director of Bloomsbury banks, could a lot of the anger and of the fate of the west come down to a very basic problem is that now we have capitalism for the poor and socialism for the rich. You know if you’re a cleaner you’ve got to get up on time you’ve got to compete with other people, you’re in a very capped system. If at the other end your Fred the Shred and you lose several billions pounds you get pensioned off with several hundred thousand pounds a year and get your yachts paid for and all the rest of it.
Bill Emmott
So this is the Anthony Trollop era back is what you’re saying?
Question 6
It has changed it seems to me that that is the situation that people with the real, real power and money they can make fortunes but if they screw up doesn’t matter there’s no consequences for the super-rich and people are angry at this, very angry.
Bill Emmott
No I agree I mean I think the fact that no bankers virtually no bankers in either America or here have gone to jail I mean a few fund managers have but very few people have been punished unlike in the 1930s is I think a problem actually because there were clearly not just mistakes or technical errors there was corruption so I would agree that that was part of the sense of unfairness. At the bottom end of the scale as you say the capitalism for the poor part I think that you have to be very competitive, maybe I’m becoming a lefty in my old age but I actually read Bernie Sanders book on the weekend, our revolution, and found that about two-thirds of his policy proposals I actually agreed with including the raising of minimum wages because I think that actually we have let the tail end of our distribution go to far…
Audience member
I think there is a lot of anger when people see people don’t get punished for losing billions almost inaudible..
Bill Emmott
Well that sense of injustice I absolutely agree with you I think the other thing is what’s my life like as a lower paid person and I think that particularly now as we are approaching full employment we should be well I thought George Osbourne started it by raising the minimum wage quite a bit, I think that needs to be continued rather aggressively in a lot of countries because actually we can afford to now as we are getting to that point and with technology coming we should be stimulating investment in labour saving productivity whilst we are at this level of high employment at least and helping raise so of the living standards of people on the lower end of the spectrum I think that’s right my means simply other than handouts.
Dr Alan Mendoza
Right there was a question at the very back and then we will come to the question in the middle.
Question 7
Tom Eastland for the Tokyo inaudible newspaper. Basically just building on the previous question you’ve outlined what countries you consider to be the West but Japan has always been part of yet separate to the West at the same time and a lot of the issues you talked about like immigration, populism, even things like Brexit actually aren’t found in Japan the same way there found in the other countries which is America and the EU countries. So my question is do you see some of these western countries having a worse fate than other countries?
Bill Emmott
Well if I approach Japan first I mean I think Japan has had populism its elected comedians and actors as mayors and governors of provinces during its 25 year period since its own financial crisis. I would say that the current government of Japan is essentially a populist, nationalist government, the LDP, Prime Minister basically banging a highly nationalist and populist drum. So I don’t think Japan has been immune from populism in that sense and it had a sudden swing to another party in 2009 with a landslide then threw them out again 3 years later almost as it was some kind of experiment that then went wrong and was failed.
So I think Japans within the same range of issues and problems as other countries among these liberal open societies but yeah all of us deal with things in our own ways and Japan is somewhat separate in its way of thinking about things as a relatively homogenous society off the course of Asia with less of a history of immigration than others but it has a lot to teach us in managing demography, demographic change and some mistakes which we could learn from in the way in which long periods of secular stagnation which has been allowed to set in particularly because of very, very low incomes towards the bottom end of the range that have helped to depress household demand and business activity even as the country approaches full employment.
I think its firmness in staying in alliances perhaps in a lesson to Britain that lets say the political indulgence of Brexit is in my view a great mistake but also not to be taken too far.
Dr Alan Mendoza
Ok question in the middle.
Question 8
Inaudible…
Dr Alan Mendoza
Sorry didn’t hear that
Question 8
Guy Thomas. Why do you think the United Kingdom voted Brexit and could inaudible European Union to lose a reluctant member?
Bill Emmott
Well I do actually think the kind of common association and commentary of Trump and Brexit or Trump, Brexit, Le Pen is a mistake I think that the vote for Brexit while I disagreed with it and I’m a strong remain supporter reflected a wide range of things including actually a sense of self-confidence about Britain and its economic and political future. That to some degree reflected some kind of superiority complex compared with continental Europe particularly in the light of recent crisis over the Euro over long-term stagnation as was perceived and over the migrant crisis. So I think that the dysfunction of the European Union combined with a sort of British self-confidence is really the reason overall why one should explain why did Britain vote 52 to 48 to leave the European Union rather than the association with Populism and Trump and so forth even though of course there was some element of that particularly on the immigration front. I listened to the Today programme this morning and to Greg Clarke being interrogated by Justin Webb about how really the government was proposing to reduce net migration to tens of thousands whilst also admitting everyone industry said it needs. I would of heard a man squirming and trying to pretend that black was white.
Dr Alan Mendoza
Excellent there’s someone with the book in their hands yes that gentleman there and then we will come forward there.
Question 9
Inaudible.. I have two questions and thank you for inaudible I saw you mentioning here Google I think last week the news was out that 20% of all advertising revenues go to now to either Google or Google and Facebook combined I just want to know what you think about it and the second question is what’s your worst case scenario for the fate of the west if the worst comes to worst?
Bill Emmott
Ok well I think that I do write about Google a bit in the book I think that we have a developing monopoly or oligopolistic situation in some of those technology industries, I think a few years ago if someone like me would of said that people would of said oh it’s just an old newspaper man resenting the loss of business to a competitor but I think they have become capable of abusing their dominant positions and that anti-trust authorities do need to be geared up to deal with that. I talk about in the book how Google has become the biggest donor to campaign finance for members of congress in the states in the recent elections and that there’s no coincidence that they have a very strong interest in preventing any irregularly intervention in the inaudible that took on Microsoft in the 1990s. I do think Google that dominance needs to be confronted. My old publication I left 11 years ago that I take no credit or blame for the Economist had it on their cover last week on how to deal with domination of the big data business so you should talk to them about a more sophisticated view of it. But I would say that.
Worst case scenario I think that individual countries really fail to solve their economic and social problems and that they react to that failure by opposing and demonising each other i.e. by breaking up alliances by setting up barriers between each other and potentially by stirring up conflict with each other. So the worst case scenario to me is a disintergrist scenario in some ways which could be by some kind of post Trump equivalent who takes an even more America first policy position but with support actually from congress in this case…
Audience member
Don’t you see that happening between countries rather than inside countries?
Bill Emmott
Well I think it begins inside countries then the reason it becomes worst case, the problem for one country is not a worst case scenario for the west you know we can have duds but the problem for the west i.e. the collection of liberal democracies that I think have associated who have set up rules of engagement in trade, business and in human rights and others between each other and have collaborated in a tent sometimes successful sometimes not to enforce those and to preserve stability, the problem comes when we start attacking each other and we start attacking the laws and the rules we’ve set up. So that’s the worst case scenario if we start undermining that so and if you said what is the worst thing you fear about Donald Trump apart from things obviously to do with very extreme foreign policy in terms of nuclear weapons I’d say the thing that I am most worried about is the attacks and successfully undermines some of the networks of international law that the US has been instrumental in setting up over the last, previous several decades including a big interest, the World Trade Organisation but not alone.
Dr Alan Mendoza
The lady here yes.
Question 10
Sylvia Macdonald food writer and student. Do you think countries join the European Union for what they can put into it or for what they could get out of it? I think it is the latter which is why I don’t ever think it will be a cohesive success and just one other thing very briefly I think the British people particularly the many of us the metropolitan elite if you can call us that in the centre of London would have been happy to remain but if you go on the outskirts to the towns and villages I think it goes back to that basic tenant of no taxation without representation and people felt that within Europe their representation, the significance of it was diminishing daily. I think that’s why we had Brexit.
Bill Emmott
I think that in terms of your, you know you’ve heard my answer to the second question, you know why 48% of people voted rather than why some people voted, sorry 52% of people voted rather than 48 so I shan’t repeat that. Why do countries join the EU I think it’s for both of them two things so 28 countries so far have joined the European Union because they have seen benefits from collaboration with one another and from adherence to a collective system of law that they felt they could not achieve on their own. Their motives and what they thought they could get out would obviously differ from country to country and small to big and so on and so forth but those 27 countries have basically joined for that reason that they thought they could punch above rather their individual weight buy being part of a collective, by agreeing common laws that they otherwise couldn’t impose on one another that they would get benefit from those common laws in their trade and their human rights and all sorts of other parts of law that they could achieve in competition policy. Greater things in regards to Google than they could on their own so if you go to Silicon Valley and you talk to lawyers there who don’t represent Google you will find and something unusual happens to you, the European Commission is praised as being an important and significant source of freedom potentially and that’s because they see the department of justice not doing anything about Google and Facebook and so forth and they see the European Commission willing to do something.
So that’s perhaps a long way of answering they may of also agreed collectively to do things that you might disagree with but competition policy is a good example of something where countries have basically joined together because they thought they could be more powerful in responding to things together not separately.
Dr Alan Mendoza
In the corner
Question 11
William Sandover I have to work for British Airways but that’s almost incidental. In this context I want to kind of pick up on the previous question and want to hear your answer to it. I think the problem with Brexit was the country never had an emotional reason for being part of the EU and there was a very, very emotional drive to be part of the EU on behalf of Germans post War, the French followed the Germans, the Italians be sitting with the French and the Germans, with any luck they were squeezed in between and then other countries, Ireland the Republic to be independent of the UK, they knew people were escaping dictatorship as a bulwark against that and then finally the East Europeans. Very, very powerful emotional drive that never existed here. President Shirak would always address the French people with the French flag and the EU flag behind him. No British politician ever dared to do that because they were afraid of the press and because we were always apart. Our politicians failed to make the emotional case for Europe and always came back saying I have a won a great victory in Brussels rather than we have done a great deal and it’s the failure of our political class over 30 years to make the case for Europe.
Bill Emmott
Well I agree with much of that although I would say were not the only country in the European Union who doesn’t have that emotional view we may be the only very big country who do that but Ireland and Denmark joined at the same time as us, why did they join because we were joining actually. Why did Sweden and Finland only join in the 1990s did they have an emotional view no they saw it in a pragmatic way having stayed out. Secondly when David Coven and I were in Brussels when he was UK representation and I was a reporter plenty of people from other governments would come down and give their press briefings and do what David was instructed to do and tell their journalists look what I’ve won for France, look what I’ve won for Italy, look what I’ve won, it’s absolutely the common currency. So it always have been but there’s no doubt that you’re right that we haven’t had that sense of an emotional attachment to Europe and kind of a necessity strategically especially for being part of Europe in the same way that we have had with NATO. That’s why I think that Brexit was entirely predictable.
The Times in its review of my book on Saturday seemed to claim that people like me didn’t see Brexit coming and we were all shocked by it. Nonsense it was absolutely always on the cards Brexit because of the very point that you make that our popular attachment was rather contingent and hadn’t been made in an emotional way and therefore the starting point as it were well er it’s a bit of a transaction what do you think today and if you present the question at a referendum it was quite likely that you were going to get a no depending on the circumstances at the time. So I don’t think it was a surprise at all.
Dr Alan Mendoza
Yes we’ve got time for a couple more.
Question 12
Inaudible… I’d like to know how optimistic are you about the fate of the non-west becoming more like the west in terms of liberal democracy. My intuitions are for what it’s worth is unless they do the fate of the west is doomed we will just be washed away with people seeking, coming in, getting in through all sorts of means. I mean the notion that we are controlling immigration by citing asylum seekers numbers and found asylum seekers being returned is ludicrous it only represents a tiny proportion of the overall immigrants and the numbers who remain after visas have run out and so on is like a 100,000 a year at the moment in Britain. So I put it to you that isn’t the west…
Bill Emmott
We are a population of 65 million people
Question 12
Well nonetheless but if you also look at the fertility rates and so on we could talk I mean we could go into that but my general point is to what extent would you share the view that the fate of the west is dependent on the fate of the non-west?
Bill Emmott
I don’t share that view perhaps let me rephrase that because that is no less true today than it has ever been. In other words it was true 10, 20, 30, 40 or 50 years ago. We’ve always been surrounded by potential threats, potential invaders, and potential migrants indeed at various different times and I don’t think that, well it’s never wrong to say we’re not but also I don’t think that’s what’s distinctive about today personally. I think that clearly it’s true that in Africa in particular you’ve got a combination of high fertility rates, of rapid population growth and quite a lot of dysfunctional government and economy that combined with people trafficking and the means to pay for transport, migration often gets encouraged when people get a bit more wealthy because they can afford to travel more. That does pose an important part of the challenge absolutely right I think that that’s true but does the fate of the west depend on developing Africa towards a fully-fledged, modern, democratic liberal society well if it depends on that it’s going to be my answer. So just as we could have had mass migration from all sorts of countries in Asia as well.
Now I do think that countries like China, countries like some of the others that have been mentioned as middle classes develop so the demand for accountability of political actors and institutions and powerholders is increasing so there is a move towards forms of democracy in those countries I’m not taking a Francis Fukuyama history has ended quite view or a sense that this is kind of ineluctable but nevertheless I do think that is a consequence of development. So I do hope that this sort of movement does happen in Africa but I think that’s enough of the solution to deal with this issue fast enough.
Dr Alan Mendoza
The last three very quick questions do you want to start I will do them altogether in one round.
Question 13
A worry a little bit about moving around an elephant in the room which is education my name is John Warburton I teach music and produce films. The people who are going to put in to place many of the policies which are now being decided are leaving universities that’s the area where I teach but what’s to be done to reach their children to bring about this balance that you spoke about early on between openness and equality. How can we stuff their heads full of ideas that will result in some kind of economic and cultural peace which will result in nations beyond stuffing their IPhone full of good music and good translations of history books?
Question 14
I’m just wondering what your thoughts are about on wisdom where that comes from? My names Madeline Simpson I’m a theologian and blogger for wandering affair. On the streets of Chiswick where I live I think part of people’s rebellion against the metropolitan elites etc. is because they don’t trust the people who claim to be socialists. They don’t trust people in Richmond living in million pound mansions telling them about equality…
Dr Alan Mendoza
You can’t get a million pound mansion in Richmond…
Question 14
Well it’s this thing of integrity and integrity and leadership and where does it come from and where is the integrity to be found. What are your thoughts on the decline of wisdom as a founding principle in the west and should we even bother with it?
Dr Alan Mendoza
And finally…
Question 15
Sir I read I think in the Economist but I can’t recall a statistic about how public attitudes towards immigration in different countries in Europe and we were I believe we were the fourth most positive i.e. almost everyone is significantly more hostile than us. Now that made me worry that part of what’s going wrong is that our democratic systems are simply not sufficiently responsive to changes in public policy. So even if people in Europe are wrong to be this hostile towards these issues, the fact that they are significantly more hostile than we are and yet the institutions of the European Union have more of a sense of inaudible than anything else are continuing to pursue policies when public opinion has dramatically moved against that because I think it’s intrinsically because the greatest thing in my view about democracy is you get a sort of safety valve, an error correction. So I’m not even necessarily that interested in whether or not the people are right I think there needs to be a massive move and I don’t see how the course will change given that structures in the European Union how that can happen. I think to…
Dr Alan Mendoza
Ok let’s leave it there.
Bill Emmott
Ok swift answers to mega questions by the way I did think that Chiswick if part of the metropolitan elite having have grown up in Brentford and gone to school in Hammersmith, Chiswick is part of my metropolitan elite heart. Look as a journalist and writer I cannot be against either wisdom or education or the sharing of views I think that of course everyone must buy my book that’s the way to stuff ideas into the young but I think that communicators, writers, educators need to take both a very kind of honest and reflective view of where mistakes have been made and then communicate them very clearly and honestly and not in a very complacent everything will be alright on the night way. So it’s about accountability.
In terms of public attitudes on immigration levels of foreign born population in Britain are not above those in other European countries there pretty similar to France and Germany, there above Italy, there way below Switzerland a non-European Union country where 25% of the population are foreign born.
I think first of all public attitudes to immigration are a lot to do with the economic situation as much as anything else there is of course other cultural and terrorism issues as well but overall if you say what moves that barometer it’s how poor do you feel in my opinion. So we rated actually relatively positive because actually we have had a better economic recovery in the last 4-5 years not before then.
Secondly the European Union controls immigration actually quite strictly just not between European Union countries but it does in terms of non-EU countries. We actually have higher immigration from non-EU countries than is typical of other EU countries by our own policies. Because of this difference in economic condition in the last more than 5 years and attitudes before since 2004 a lot of that EU to EU flow some of it has come to Britain quite a bit of it has gone to Germany as well but quite a bit has come to Britain. So if you like the public attitudes also reflect the fact that young French, Spanish and Italian graduates have been able to come and find a job in London and we welcome them because actually their bringing skills and we are having a brain game from the money that their governments have spent on educating them and training them for us to use. So I personally think we have taken, we are moving in exactly the wrong direction potentially depending on post-Brexit immigration policy of controlling the immigration of the people who are most beneficial to us and reducing the immigration of the people who are least beneficial to us or most costly to us at least in the short term which is kind of ironic.
Dr Alan Mendoza
It is indeed but there’s nothing ironic about what we’ve heard today. Bill I want to thank you concise, thoughtful and positive and we’ve seen a bit of positivity now in France coming to the fore. We’ve seen in this part or semi-part of the metropolitan beating heart of London a bit of positivity today. But I think the greatest compliment to this very difficult subject is the sheer range of questions that we heard today covering everything from education to health to welfare provision to immigration to wisdom, along those lines, and I think to write a book that provokes that range of response is a particular talent. We thank you for the work you’re doing in general, thank you for coming along today and everyone is encouraged to buy their own version of wisdom outside, come on in and I’m sure Bill will gladly scribe it for you with some thoughts. So Bill thank you for joining us.