TIME: 18:00 – 19:00, Monday 26th February 2018
VENUE: Committee Room 18, House of Commons
SPEAKER: Mariam Memarsadeghi, Co-Founder & Co-Director of Tavaana: E-Learning Institute for Iranian Civil Society
CHAIR: Bob Blackman MP
Chair
If I can call you to order, my apologies for the slightly late start…Welcome to this meeting about the Iran protests and the responsibility of the Free World to be involved in that. This subject on which I have a very specific interest with many friends who are refugees from Iran. So our guest speaker tonight is above who is the confounder and co-director (credentials)…what we need to put in context obviously is that Iran is recently been rocked by nationwide protests and the scale of those protests is undeniable; we’ve seen what the impact is on Iranian citizens. And we also know about the extent to which Iran is involved in suppression of free speech and suppression of minorities and I think this is an important issue. Miriam, you’re going to speak to us for a little while and then we’ll take questions from the floor…So feel free to…when we get to the Q&A section I’ll ask you to put up your hands and say who you are and if you are representing an organisation…over to you Miriam.
Mariam Memarsadeghi
Thank you so much for that introduction, thank you to the Henry Jackson Society for having me, to all for you for being here. I apologise in advance I’ve gotten a cold since being here…As already mentioned, the protests have been unprecedented in their scale in over 80 cities, throughout the country, the largest since the 1970 revolution. And also significant and very different for anything that’s happened before in Iran is that the protests are unmistakable liberal and secular in nature. In 2009 we had the green movement after a fraudulent election, but that movement was very much within the confines of Iranian political system; and were about supporting reformists who had been denied a fair vote versus so called hardliners. This time the slogans on the street again in over 80 cities throughout the country were primarily from the working class…from labour and they were as resentful and indignant towards to the reformists as much as the hardliners if not more. So basically putting the hardliners and reformists together in all kinds of slogans rejecting the whole lot wanting a complete end to rule, to theocratic rule, and to corruption. The protests in many ways started because corrupted credit institutions that were basically revealed to be ponsie schemes fell apart and people were protesting those really throughout the last 12 months but they reached a boiling point and spread throughout the country very quickly at the end of December/early January, and the corruption of those credit institutions was instinctually, inherently…was very instinctually connected; the corruption of those credit institutions was connected to the corruption of the regime. People saw that as one and the same and the slogans overnight were against basically the kleptocracy that is ruling over the people. The huge sums of money that after the Iran deal in particular, billions of dollars including over $400 million in cash that was given to the Iranian regime by the US government, rather than it be spent to address a number of domestic crises that the Iranian regime knew very well were worsening went straight to the pockets of the regime fat cats and again to Syria, to Hezbollah, to Iraq and people could see that, people knew it, and all of these things were put together. At the same time women were protesting, actually (speaks Arabic, referencing an individual) got on a city box like a telephone box and took off her hijab which until now was unthinkable…took off her hijab and put it on a stick and just stood there in the middle of a very busy street, Revolution Street, for which a hashtag was created: girls of revolution street. She started a movement where women were taking off their hijab. In Iran it is not a choice to wear a hijab; from a very young age little girls must wear hijab when they go to school, any women in public must wear hijab. So this was sort of the unthinkable thing that after four decades of apartheid system in Iran, a big wall of fear was broken. So this action, this courageous action by this woman, was actually one day before the protests broke out in ‘Mashhad’ which is the second largest city in Iran. I think there’s a little bit of a misunderstanding that these protests are from the working class, which yes they are, but they’re not from rural areas, they are from the biggest cities in Iran, Mashhad is the second biggest city in Iran (continues to list Iranian Cities), all major cities in Iran have had protests as well as small towns. These continue today, literally today there are several places where there are labour strikes; entire towns are effectively shut down so all shops have been closed. For three days in one town. Sit-ins, marches, the women’s protest taking off the hijab continues, and again the labour strikes are many and they continue. One of the big thigs that explains how big the protests became this time, is that in 2009 roughly 1 million Iranians had a smart phone, and now that number is 40 to 50 million Iranians; so their connection to each other, their connection to what’s happening in other parts of the country, their ability to transfer from what’s happening inside the country to the outside, and for them to see the coverage of what’s happening in their own country by outside media and especially social media, is really profoundly exponentially different. I mentioned at the beginning and now I want to repeat because it’s very important, the slogans, the aspirations, the values of the protests are unmistakable liberal and secular and a rejection of the totality of the regime. So reformists are as much the target of the dissent of these protests as the hard-liners. There is a very strong celebration of pre-revolutionary figures, history, values, developments, achievements, particularly in terms of women’s rights, openness to the outside world, economic progress; so even though the slogans are short of course there’s a recall to what Iran had and has lost because of the revolution. It’s unmistakably a rejection of the revolution. In many ways it’s a harkening back to the 1906 constitutional revolution that Iran had, which was its Magna Carta moment if you will; trying to bring the monarchy within the rule of law, create accountability, popular sovereignty. And so in many ways there is an interest, a clear recognition of Iran’s pre-revolutionary history, particularly the early 20th century. A far as the responsibility of the free world, I think the most important thing is to be true to our principles, true to who we are. Otherwise we risk losing our own humanity. It isn’t just that we should care about other people and other countries because that’s the right thing to do, if we don’t do that then who are we…what is Britain, what is Europe, what is the United States of America if it turns a blind eye to the suffering of people in Syria? There’s a direct connection between that suffering, that annihilation, that very profound destruction of an entire country, and how we have treated the Iranian regime. To get at the Iran Deal the US basically handed over to the Iranian regime whatever it wanted to do, and to the Russian regime whatever it wanted to do, in Syria and we are still paying that price. Unless the US, unless European nations at this point want to get into some kind of a physical confrontation with Russian jets in Syria, that conflict is not going to end. It’s very sad, but it’s where we are now we have created this dead end for ourselves by appeasing the Iranian regime. So we can still do good things, we can still do important things to help the Iranian people and to correct the course of history in the Middle East. In Sweden we have what is considered, what is called proudly, a feminist government. But unfortunately that feminist government just when Iranian women were taking off their hijab in protest, travelled to Tehran and met with Iranian officials wearing hijabs. This ton the Iranian Women’s Right Movement, to just any Iranian, was unthinkable. It was a big slap in the face. Just when Iranians are looking for basic decent solidarity; not a big show of sanctions, not all of that (we would love that if possible), but at least show in symbolic terms that you are behind the women of Iran as they face down the tyrants who rule over them. The Swedish government who calls itself a feminist government travelled to Tehran and wore hijab. Federica Mogherini was completely absent as these protests began. Here’s someone who spent her everyday focused on Iran, tweeting constantly, talking constantly about Iran, and you have protests in over 80 cities, all of these prominent dissidents, activists, tweeting at her saying: why is the EU silent? And no response from her; that’s just shameful, and history will record that as what it is, that the entire purpose of those negotiations was not to reform the regime and achieve a better human rights situation, to achieve better regime behaviour. If it was than she should have been happy to see those protests and she should’ve been supporting those protests. She was actually at that time, when she was so silent about Iran, she was traveling to Cuba and telling the Cuban regime that the EU won’t cut them off, the US will cut them off from the rest of the world economically but the EU won’t. In a lot of ways the model for this kind of behaviour was set by Barak Obama, unfortunately. During the 2009 Green Movement when people on the street were chanting ‘Barak Hussein Obama (speaks in Arabic)’, which mean ‘Barak Hussein Obama, you’re either with us or you’re with them’. So you’re either with us, the protesters, or you’re with them, the Iranian regime. He basically said nothing; after a few days when he did say something he said it doesn’t matter to us who wins this because whoever’s president just doesn’t matter. As if all those people on the streets, at that point there were millions on the streets, there will, their willingness to stand up and want something more just really doesn’t make a difference to the US. As if its kind of inconvenient to the plan for reconciliation, remember at this point Obama had already reached out to the Supreme Leader Khamenei, wanted to make a deal. So what happened is that there was $400 million in cash provided to the Iranian regime at the same time that the Iranian regime released hostages it was…you can’t call it anything other than a ransom payment; and what followed was very predictable. More hostage taking, more and more Iranian-Americans now in prison. Apparently now a British Iranian citizen, apparently the discussion and the back and forth is on the interest rate on the money that the UK should pay to the Iranian Government in order for her to be released. These are bad precedents. What we need to do is change course to do the opposite rather than give them, the Iranian regime, what it is demanding; we should take away from them the things that they want. So take away from them the things that they want; we need to see what economic opportunities, what economic interests they have and make those be something, make those be carrots where at the very most be carrots for better and better human rights behaviour but at a time when they’re killing people in prison, calling suicides, many many people just happened to be committing suicides in prisons in Iran these days. This is not the time to be offering lucrative trade deals to the Iranian Government, which unfortunately is what’s happening from one European nation after another. There are many voices in Western capitals who really always say the same thing that if you’re nice to this regime it’ll be nice back. So in the US it’s the national Iranian American Council, Canadians have a version, I understand that there are a lot of those types here in London. We have to see for what they are, we have to call them out for what they are. At the very least we should be understanding of why they say what they say. If that was true we wouldn’t be here today. After all Rouhani is supposed to be a moderate. Here we are executions increased under we have severely repressive violent response to these protests, and as I mentioned the hostage taking of western nationals is continuing. I don’t want to talk too much longer, there’s quite a few things that can be done. One thing I do want to mention is that because I’m here is that the BBC is something that the Iranian people; particularly democrats, dissidents, human rights defenders, feminists; really expect it to be something that helps Iranian civil society right now, that really helps a transition to democracy, and its exactly the opposite of that unfortunately. Some of the most prominent important BBC journalists people who are on every day, who are respected. Such as Mazher Mahmoud, he has been on not once, not twice but regularly supporting Iran’s sponsorship of war and terror in Syria. This is unthinkable, this is so shameful. How can British taxpayer dollars be going to support a media outlet that operates in such a way. I’ll stop there and I’m sorry if I spoke too much.
Chair
We’ll take questions from the floor. But I’ll use my power as chairman to ask the first one. Given the nature of the nuclear deal, if you can call it that, between the USA and others and Iran, and also a large number of people who would say that was a really bad thing to do at all; but given that that’s happened has that given the encouragement to the regime in your view to persist in its hard-line approach given that the sanctions have been removed just as at the time they were starting to bite and indeed there are issues certainly I would take the view that we aren’t sure with the nuclear deal anyway; so has that taken the pressure off and has it encouraged the regime to be even more stringent as a result?
Mariam Memarsadeghi
It’s definitely emboldened the regime in that there’s more money coming in and already through this time it created its power through especially through Syria, Iraq, Hezbollah, and it’s much more so now. One of the ironies is that you’d think that with the Iran Deal they would figure out a way to use it to enhance their legitimacy at home, but they’re so corrupt that the opposite has happened. With the injection of cash they just made themselves more corrupt and more illegitimate rather than figure out a way to make this work for themselves. So as the Iran protest continue I think that the regime is doubling down on its external nefarious actions, its imperialism if you will. Because at this point it has no choice but to show a very strong face outward because inside it’s really just corrupted and seen for what it is.
Chair
Ok thank you. Questions.
Audience Member
You mentioned that the Iranian people would like to see sanctions put on the country in response to the protests and the governments reaction to the protests; do you think it is prudent for the US to withdraw from the Iran Deal?
Mariam Memarsadeghi
I’m not an expert and I think that the new administration, the Trump Administration, has followed a wise course, I’m not a Trump supporter by any means; but to say to the Iranian Regime, to say to the EU, to say to Democrats in our Congress: you have three months, you have four months, you have to make this work within this time period or we’re not going to certify again. I think that’s a good policy. I think that’s smart. Because what it is now is certainly not working.
Audience Member
Iran is a very tough government to take on, so it’s got the paramilitaries it’s got a very tough regime, it’s not going to easy, but there are indications that it’s not that effective. I was actually in Kurdistan during the referendum and we were very closely involved with people….the Kurdish areas of Iran is when the 93% vote was announced that whole part of Iran went [inaudible] and the revolutionary guard were so angry and [inaudible] tried to stop people dancing in the street, stopping work, and having celebrations and fiestas, and this is an indication that it is a regional and ethnic issue, it’s quite clear that control is not that effective. So how can we from outside have an influence in that without giving [inaudible] the argument that it’s all being managed overseas and from outside the country?
Mariam Memarsadeghi
Yeah, that is something that is always going to be the perception. Not so much the perception but it’s always going to be the manipulation that the Iranian regime strives for. And to some extent it is effective. There is in the Iranian culture this sense that the outside world is calling the shots, amongst some people obviously not all people; and it’s kind of ironic because the outside world is really if anything is neglecting Iran and not doing much of anything to help. But the things that, one of the things that the outside world can do which is effective is to release as much and disclose as much as possible about the corruption of the Iranian regime. Doesn’t have to do this very directly, can do it directly on like official government social media channels, or it can do it indirectly through documentaries like [inaudible] station. But show over and over and over again how corrupt the Iranian regime is. That is, give hard facts to build credence to what Iranians already know and feel instinctually but give, you know, hard history and budget numbers and things like that.
Audience Member
So in 1979, labour [inaudible] the revolution and economic strikes were very effective in bringing down the government. I was wondering if you thought that strikes can play a similar role in modern day Iran.
Mariam Memarsadeghi
There are a lot of strikes right now they’re not the massive kind, they’re not the co-ordinated kind, they can become that. Certainly I think it would be very effective if they were more co-ordinated more…connecting cities together all on the same days would help. We haven’t gotten there, but I don’t think that…I think it is very much possible that it could happen. I mean also you have teachers who are striking. Its many many sectors, it’s not just the working class, factory workers, so there’s potential for much bigger more widespread labour union protest that are combined with more middle class and teacher strikes.
Audience Member
Thank you for [inaudible] Iran. I agree with you about you criticism that you made about the regime. But I think that the whole story has another side of it as well. I speak to people [inaudible] for four year I ran a programme on Iran [inaudible] I spoke to many people and then they have a different view, that they like us, they want this regime to disappear overnight, but they are very well aware that what they said from the very beginning of the revolution [inaudible] and they are after the events in Iraq, especially Syria, Yemen; DAESH and all that, people are petrified about the war and we all know that Iranians are extremely patriotic and they are aware that there are forces that encouraging the cessationist movements, and they are very much afraid. I hear over and over again that if help is coming, if being against the Islamic Republic means the disintegration of Iran we would go behind the Islamic Republic. So some policy makers should be very very careful in what they devise about Iran in order not to trigger back, in order not to be a failure. With regard to peoples protest in Iran, I read that they want, that the target was, the hardliners and reformists, in fact the hardliners started that, the protest, by stupidly thinking that if they go against Rouhani and his regime that people will support them. That didn’t happen, what happened was immediately taken over and the slogans was targeted towards the regime as a whole. Although what they see in Iran is they say that ‘we are against the [inaudible] and the leader in total, while we are criticising the reformists’. Not because they love the reformists, but because there’s nothing else, but because there’s nothing else to replace it. I always said in the programmes that I had I always say build up the alternative, build up something, and the destroy what it is. Because by destroying something without having the replacement you create a chaos and chaos is the fertile land for extremists.
Mariam Memarsadeghi
It’s a process, when you look at other democratic transitions, it is not as though there was a fully baked democratic alternative before the old regime fell. The one and the other go hand in hand. You have in Iran now, a call for a referendum by people who are respected, we have democratic dissidents, we have people who could run in free and fair elections…(Interrupted by Audience Member IV)…
Audience Member
Now they’re talking about three different distinct groups in Iran. One is the reformists who is with the government, another one is the reformist who want the gradual change and they are the one [inaudible] calling for a referendum, they want the removal of [inaudible] and I think it is important to support them. Like you I would like to this regime to go overnight, but it won’t happen unfortunately, we have to see what is…
Mariam Memarsadeghi
I’m not sure what I said to give the impression that its overnight, I was talking about the protests that exist, and you know that at Tavaana we cover all of these voices (lists Arabic names); it’s not like we’re lacking a lot of good credible democratic voices; and they have support from the people. So when you look at other democratic transitions, it was a similar situation. It’s not as though while a totalitarian regime is in power you can see a perfect democratic alternative at the same time. If you could then it wouldn’t be in power anymore. That’s the whole point, the totalitarian regime wants everyone to think that if it’s not in power there will be absolute mayhem, it will be absolute war, it will be Syria. They have worked on this project for the last three four years as they annihilate they turn over here and say to their own people ‘be careful if you wish for anything more than you already have you’re gunna become Syria’. Implicit in that is a threat that we will do to you what we’ve done to them. We should not buy that, if you want to prevent Iran from becoming Syria than the answer the solution is to press harder not to support the reformists.
Timothy Stafford, Senior Research Fellow at HJS
My question is about how the Americans are perceived in all of this, because you talked about Obama staying relatively quiet in 2009 out of the hope that this could be result in some rapprochement of the regime. Obviously the Trump Administration has taken quite a different approach, Pence writing in the Washington Post that the administration won’t keep silent this time. And yet at the same time whilst the administration has been critical of the regime, it’s also included Iran in the Muslim ban and seen to be taking measures that target the population itself. How’s the current administration perceived is it on the side of the people or not? What’s the sense within Iran itself?
Mariam Memarsadeghi
It’s hard to say, because a lot of people on the ground don’t really care who the President is, they see it as big-power politics and they just want pressure on the Iranian regime no matter who the President is. Having said that the Muslim ban, the ban against Iranians, was really really a gift to the national Iranian-American council, basically the lobbyists working outside of Iran. They milked that for all its worth if you will, they really used that to discredit anything this administration is ever going to do in the future for Iran. So we have recommended a series of steps that the American government can take immediately and one of them is to get rid of that ban and instead correct the Obama policy of letting in Iranian regime leaders. So under the Obama administration, Mousavian not only came to the US but was given a lucrative position at Princeton University. Ebtekar, one of the hostage takers, her son was given a visa to come to the US. One of the Larijani’s daughters was given a visa to come to the US. Now recently Hussein [inaudible], one of the intelligence ministries most effective external operatives has entered the US and has a fellowship at Harvard. So we need to correct this, and basically kick these people out of the US and let in the people who love America, Iranians who love America.
Audience Member
I just wanted to say, when we talk about protests, the protests were wide-spread, but the numbers were not like the numbers of the 2009, and the point I want to make is that I agree with and trust your message; and the fact that [inaudible] activist for 30 years, and what we have created for is to have western communities support the kind of ideals that they cherish so that our people can benefit from them as well. Realistically at this time the regime is not on the verge of collapse as we speak. So this is not a short term affair, it not a hundred meter sprint, it’s going to take some time. And I think that to have this notion which people being afraid of not having a Syria or an Iraq or and Afghan scenario, this is not entirely the makings of the Iranian regime, because this sit ha failure of the US if Iran is succesful in Syria, Iraq, or Lebanon, it is because of the vacuum the Americans created, which they filled in. If Saddam had been there there’s no way that the Iranians could do anything. When the same happened when western governments tried to undermine the Syrian regime and then they didn’t follow through; or in Lebanon with the Americans withdrew after 250 people were killed by suicide bomber. So if you vacate something [inaudible] take it over, it’s as simple as that. Problems that have occurred today, and that’s what it comes to soliciting western support, and making sure that this is used in a right way; I believe the message should come to encouraging people, but you have to be realistic. Peoples primary focus is not democracy or human rights, its jobs, it their economic situation.
Mariam Memarsadeghi
Yes but they’ve realised that they can’t have basic welfare, a decent life, without accountability. They can’t have that economic livelihood with a corrupt regime.
Audience Member
I agree with you, but the Western message that is coming is we need to be able a little bit more specific as to what we want and what is helpful. I don’t believe that President Trump’s outlandish comments are going to help the people. I think anti-American sentiment within Iran has increased in the last 10-15 years. People were looking to America. [inaudible] used to say that Iran is different that all the other middle-eastern countries, whereas in the other middle-eastern countries the governments were pro-American, and the people were anti-American, Iran used to say it was the flip flop. And now the Muslim band, and outlandish comments, irresponsible comments…
Mariam Memarsadeghi
But also in 2009, what Obama did, I remember that very well.
Audience Member
I totally concur with the points that you mention. My question is about the role of if IRGC, because we are talking about the practical steps which should be taken to expel the Iranian regime from the region. Because there are four major concerns regarding Iran and Human Rights, the terrorism of the regime, their intransigence in the region, and their ballistic missile tests, and what they are doing. I we know that the IRGC [inaudible] internal and external suppression of the Syrian people is the main force behind all these things. IRGC has already been put in the terrorist list of the Treasury Department of the United States and I know that Mr. Blackman himself was the sponsor of the [inaudible] asking for the blacklisting of IRGC here in Europe; in the UK as well as other European Countries. I think one of the main practical steps could be to expel and evict the Iranian that is the IRGC from Syria, from Iraq, from Yemen, from Lebanon. I wanted to know what your answer is for this.
Mariam Memarsadeghi
Well it would be nice if we could do it, but you’re talking about a war; and unfortunately there was a time when we could have fought that war or actually prevented that war really through no fly zones and targeted surgical airstrikes and Obama decided not to do that. And so here we are, many hundreds of thousands of people dead and millions displaced and the IRGC significantly emboldened. I don’t see how you’re going to do that just by having sanctions.
Audience Member
May I just make a comment on this? I think to follow up on what he said. Putting the IRGC the terrorist list sends a message. It sends a message that the west is not willing to take part [inaudible] hardliners. And that’s gives you might say support to the reformists. To people who want to moderate.
Mariam Memarsadeghi
You’re saying to sanction the IRGC?
Audience Member
Yes. And that’s a practical step. When it comes to money, you mentioned about money. There is no money really going into Iran. That is one of the things the Iranian regime is very upset about because the sanctions have nominally been removed but effectively there’s no money going into Iran. But if money is allowed to go into Iran but to the private sector as opposed to companies that belong to IRGC, these are practical steps.
Mariam Memarsadeghi
There is no private that is not IRGC, there’s very little private sector…talking about a central command economy.
Audience Member
But there is a private sector. The private sector did have a big role ten years ago or fifteen years ago, but that has been shrunken. I’m saying that these are practical steps. That sends a message.
Mariam Memarsadeghi
Oh so you’re saying push money into Iran.
Audience Member
I’m saying definitely do not push money that can go to IRGC or IRGC affiliated companies.
Mariam Memarsadeghi
Yes but you can’t distinguish those.
Audience Member
Thank you for the presentation, but you did not really highlight on the cooperation between the Iranian authorities and the Western governments relating to drugs from Asia. Because if we’re talking about supressing the finances of the Revolutionary Guards we also [inaudible] narcotics from Asia. So that means that cooperation between the Western governments and Authorities from Iran [inaudible]. What do you think about that?
Mariam Memarsadeghi
I’m not sure I understand.
Audience Member
There’s an element of cooperation between some of the Iranian Authorities and narcotic forces supressing drugs coming from Asia into Europe from Iran. If there is some…
Mariam Memarsadeghi
Cooperation? I don’t know anything about that sorry. I just don’t know anything about that. I’d be very suspicious that the Iranian Government is doing anything that is constructive to prevent the flow of narcotics. Since they make a lot of money from that. That’s just my instinctual answer I don’t know the details.
Chair
I think also the other thing is the concept you have to remember that helps to destroy the decadent west who are the consumers of these drugs. So from the regimes perspective that’s a great thing to do.
Mariam Memarsadeghi
Yes and keep in mind that the regime also keeps its own population heavily drugged. Drug abuse in Iran is among the worst in the world and the Iranian Government make no effort whatsoever to address the crisis by their own statistics, a very large segment of the population is addicted to very hard drugs.
Ross Paton, HJS
I wanted to ask you about the British Labour party’s reaction to the protests. They quite conspicuously said that they would not leap to judgement to condemn the Iranian Governments reaction to the protests. Is this poor judgement made political naivety, or is there something perhaps more nefarious given Corbyn’s connections?
Mariam Memarsadeghi
Did Corbyn himself say that? It’s more than naivety, it’s an ideology. It’s a way of looking at the world that is anti-west and pro populist regimes that almost turn into totalitarian regimes. I mean look at what the Labour Party, look at what Corbyn has said about Venezuela. Does he ever come and say I was wrong, I was really very wrong in my understanding of what Chavez and Maduro were about? No. Does he say I was wrong to go on Press TV, I was wrong to take money from the Iranian government to appear on it propaganda network, I was wrong to support the anniversary of Khomeini’s death, or birth whatever? It…I can’t believe that this is, that we live in a time that these kind of politicians are actually being listened to. The millions of people are suffering around the world because there is a lack of honesty about regimes like the Iranian Regime, what Hezbollah and Lebanon, Corbyn waves that flag proudly, what the Chavez Maduro Government…I mean millions of people are suffering because of those regimes and the ideology that Corbyn think, still thinks, is a good idea.
Ross Paton
How do you think…what’s the best way in terms of enlightening society that might vote for Corbyn to see that distinction, to see their error?
Mariam Memarsadeghi
Its tough because, yes I think that a little bit more willingness, we have to find ways to make people average human beings in Britain and America think that what someone, what a leader, what a politician thinks about other countries actually says a lot about them in terms of who they are, what values they have, and all of that is important to the here and now of their own country, of their own vote, of their own future. I mean if Corbyn thinks that those regimes are ok, what is that say about his vision of the future for the UK, I think that we need to focus on that so people understand.
Audience Member
I think its quite easy to call for more sanctions on the regime, because at the end of the day what happens [inaudible] people suffer. Let’s remember that in 2013 people elected Rouhani to end the sanctions regime…[inaudible]. So sanctions really [inaudible] internally are badly managed, they’re very corrupt as you said, but at the end of the day [inaudible]. Also I don’t have a real example of one case, of one country in the world where sanction worked in changing the regime, and I don’t think its going to happen in Iran. The base people who support the Iranian government is quiet strong in the country. So my question is: is more of the rule of Rouhani and how the West can achieve, build on this deal to support, mother it, especially when you come to major events in the country and the middle-east, like when Khamenei dies, don’t you think there’s a window of opportunity of the West to support people like Rouhani?
Mariam Memarsadeghi
Can I ask you what has Rouhani done that you think is worthy of support? What do you see in Rouhani that you think ‘well Khamenei will die one day so the West should support Rouhani? What’s in it for the people of Iran?
Audience Member
What I’m saying is that I think Rouhani is trying to use the protests against the hardliners in his government, and maybe bring in more reformists.
Mariam Memarsadeghi
Well he’s had time, it’s not as though he hasn’t had time, and he is the president. People voted for him because they thought that…a prominent dissident journalist said ‘people say that he didn’t have power to make the kind of changes that people want’, and he said ‘well I asked the people who voted for him did you know that he didn’t have this power when you decided to vote for him?’ I mean I thought that was excellent. So the removal of sanctions, there hasn’t…
Audience Member
What was the response to that question? Did people know that he didn’t have the power?
Mariam Memarsadeghi
Well I think that it’s a sarcastic comment. What made you go to the polls? What made you go to the polls and even after you’ve gone to the polls, he laughs away any kind of criticism about what he hasn’t done, and still people want to believe that he’s going to do something. Honestly I think that this kind of comment, this kind of analysis, is much more prominent outside of Iran than it is if people had the freedom of speech inside Iran to say what they think. These protests in over 80 cities are very angry and against the reformists. We can deny that if we want. Sanctions were effective in South Africa. And the movement, the anti-apartheid movement in South Africa actually called for sanctions. So it was the people of South Africa that wanted sanctions placed on the country until they could have the means to remove the apartheid state. Having said that, sanctions are not the only thing there is a wide spread movement, there’s civil society, there’s all kinds of…I’ve written about this, there’s a piece that I published with [inaudible] ‘In the hill’, a list of ten thigs that we can be doing. Sanctions is one of those things, there are other things we can be doing. Poor and religious people support this regime. Again, these protests have clearly refuted that claim that the poor and the religious are supporting this regime. I’m sorry it’s a fact, they don’t. And the idea that we should wait until Khamenei dies and support someone who has done zero, zero so far for the people I think is not a good idea.
Audience Member
I think the key thing that often 1979 was that it was unthinkable…[inaudible], indeed in the late stages by October, the CIA assessment was that the regime would survive for ten years, the opposition was prepared to assert (sic) the government. And I think that is very much unique to Tehran for a whole host of reasons. Many cultural, many nationalists. Many steward the fact that its ability to generate mass protests is unrivalled in most parts of the world. Do you think that there is value in looking for that possibility of maybe very radical change, probably regime change, rather than dismissing it out of hand as impossible, but rather that its improbable but should be considered?
Mariam Memarsadeghi
I don’t know any democratic transition that was widely predicted by analysts…any democratic transition that was widely predicted. And when you look at the things that are happening in Iran today, I’ve been reading recently about the transition of the Soviet Union…unfortunately it’s all about how the Soviet Union’s tyranny became by a new kind of tyranny. And another book has the same theme. But what you see I think that is significant, is that in ’88 ’89 ’90, you have developments, discourses, leaders, shifts and changes that are so similar to what is happening in Iran today. So it’s possible.