Tom Wilson, a research fellow in counter terrorism and counter extremism at foreign policy think-tank The Henry Jackson Society, said the group will continue smaller operations such as kidnappings and executions.
He said there “need for revenge” that will “continue to inspire” the hard core of the group.
“They’re likely to be as brutal as ever in the sense of wanting to take revenge,” said.
“There’s a huge number of people who essentially have vanished including western recruits whose whereabouts we don’t know.
“We haven’t got confirmation that they’re dead, we don’t believe they’ve been captured by the Kurds and they’re no evidence to suggest they’ve returned.
“That means these people are still somewhere.
“There’s still people floating around in that part of the world who are still ideologically still committed to Islamic State and as small groups of individuals could be a threat.
“I think there’s going to be a narrative that’s going to play out of saying there was a Caliphate and once again the West conspired – with other not properly Muslim regimes – to destroy that Caliphate.”
He said with its loss of territory ISIS no longer has the prestige to attract recruits or attract the same publicity.
“It’s a reality that people are defecting to al-Qaeda and other Islamist groups.
“There was a suggestion that the Islamic State and al-Qaeda were going to have some sort of reconciliation and merge.
“They have to carry out kidnappings and executions and other high profile attacks to try and stay on the radar.“Whereas once they were newsworthy because they controlled territory if they don’t have that then why is anyone going to be worrying about the Islamic State anymore.”
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