As the winter approaches Europe worries if its homes will be warm. In light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European countries have adopted an unprecedented set of sanctions against Russia – including restrictions on importing Russia’s oil. Moscow has also cut gas supplies to several states. An implication of these sanctions is that countries are seeking alternatives to Russia’s energy, with the ultimate goal being cutting off Russia completely. But is this viable in the short or medium term? How will different countries deal with a transition away from a reliance on energy? Can we expect countries to remain as united against Russia as winter approaches, or will further cracks start to show? What will happen to gas prices over the winter, and can Europe bear the cost?

The Henry Jackson Society is pleased to gather the world experts to discuss these pressing issues.

Dr Agnia Grigas, is a political economist, author, and speaker. She is a Senior Fellow at The Atlantic Council and an independent consultant based out of Los Angeles. Her three acclaimed books include “The New Geopolitics of Natural Gas” (Harvard UP) and “Beyond Crimea” (Yale UP), which was selected as TIME’s Top-10 book on Russia, and “The Politics of Energy and Memory” (Routledge).

She has lectured at Harvard, Stanford, Yale, Columbia, University of Pennsylvania, John Hopkins, Oxford, LSE, and leading business and security conferences.

She regularly appears in the media including The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Newsweek, Financial Times, Bloomberg, Reuters, Foreign Affairs, CNN, BBC. Agnia earned her Doctorate & Masters degrees in International Relations from University of Oxford, and her BA in Economics-Political Science from Columbia University.

Dr Péter Kaderják has a long-standing academic and decision-making experience in the fields of energy-related regulatory process, including energy and climate policy. Formerly, he had served in several high-level government and regulatory positions. He was Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Policy at the Ministry of Innovation and Technology of Hungary, he acted as member of the Supervisory Board of ACER (Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators), he was the President of the Hungarian Energy Office, he was Chief of Cabinet for the Minister of Economic Affairs of Hungary. His academic affiliations are linked primarily to Corvinus University of Budapest and its predecessor institutions, where he received his degrees and established REKK (Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research), which he directed between 2004 and 2018. His past and current activities are strongly linked to the liberalisation and European integration of the Hungarian electricity and natural gas sectors, the successful diversification of the Hungarian natural gas sector, the creation of national strategies to meet climate neutrality by Hungary by 2050. Today, he is engaged in designing and implementing policies, programs, conducting research and providing educational programmes that will move Hungary towards climate neutrality.

Dr Péter Kaderják is the Head of Zero Carbon Hub at Budapest University of Technology and Economics. In this capacity, he works on policy proposals, projects, research and education programmes that help Hungary to reach climate-neutrality.

Dr Helena Ivanov is an Associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society. She recently completed a PhD in International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Her research focuses on the relationship between propaganda and violence against civilians. In her thesis, Helena examined the role propaganda played during the Yugoslav Wars and produced a model for studying propaganda which details the key phases, functions, discourses, and techniques of propaganda (the model itself is applicable to other contexts). Additionally, Helena also served as a Manager at the Centre for International Studies at the LSE.

Prior to her PhD, Helena completed an MPhil in Political Theory at the University of Oxford, and holds a BA in Politics from the University of Belgrade.

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EVENT SUMMARY

The Henry Jackson Society was pleased to hold a discussion on Europe’s unprecedented sanctions against Russian oil imports in light of the war in Ukraine and how it will adapt to cope as winter approaches. Dr Helena Ivanov began the conversation by introducing the speakers. Dr Agnia Grigas highlighted Germany’s position as the largest importer of Russian gas and argued that many of the questions on European unity on the war, its collective policies and stances towards Russia will hinge on how Germany copes with the winter. Dr Peter Kaderjak discussed diversity in the global energy markets and pointed to alternative sources for Europe to procure gas and oil from, notably the USA as a growing exporter of Liquified Natural Gases. He also argued that there is significant risk of resource nationalism and trade restrictions in Europe this winter as countries brace for shortages. He did, however, point to some potential benefits of energy shortages, such as encouraging greater energy efficiency improvements and moves towards greener energy sources. Finally, the speakers answered questions on European unity, the role of NATO in promoting energy security, and the future of Russian-Chinese relations.

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