Ukraine: What’s Next?
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Ukraine: What’s Next?
3 March @ 12:30 pm - 1:30 pm
As the war continues to escalate in Ukraine, the Western powers are deploying a series of measures in their attempt to resist Putin and end the war. The West’s main tool are economic sanctions which aim to cut the Russian economy off from the rest of the world. Are these measures enough or can and should the West do more? How likely is it that Russia will successfully occupy large parts of the country? And if there is a workable ceasefire, what can we expect Ukraine to look like once that deal is signed? Finally, what might Putin do next and is there any tangible threat to his regime at the moment?
The Henry Jackson Society is pleased to gather a panel of world experts on the topic to discuss these pressing issues.
Kira Rudik is a Ukrainian politician, member of Ukrainian parliament, the head of “Golos” party. She is a former CEO of IT company Ring Ukraine. Rudik obtained her master’s degree in computer science at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, a top academic university in Ukraine. She also attended the Executive Program for Women Leaders at Stanford Business School in 2018.
Tim Judah is a journalist and author and covers the Balkans and other regions as a correspondent for The Economist.
He has worked for many major publications and broadcasters, notably writing wartime reportage from Afghanistan to Ukraine for the New York Review of Books.
He is the author of three books on the Balkans—The Serbs: History, Myth and the Destruction of Yugoslavia, Kosovo: War & Revenge and Kosovo: What Everyone Needs to Know—and published a book on the conflict in Ukraine – In Wartime: Stories from Ukraine in 2016.
From 1990 to 1991, Judah lived in Bucharest and covered the aftermath of communism in Romania and Bulgaria for The Times and The Economist. After that, he moved to Belgrade for both publications in order to cover the war in Yugoslavia. He moved back to London in 1995 but continues to travel to the region frequently.
In 2009 he was a Senior Visiting Research Fellow at LSEE, the south-east Europe research unit of the European Institute at the London School of Economics, where he developed the concept of the ‘Yugosphere’.
In 2018-19 he was a fellow of the Europe’s Futures project of the Institute for Human Sciences / IWM in Vienna and began researching demography and depopulation in central and eastern Europe and the Balkans. A series of articles is being published as a result on Balkan Insight / Reporting Democracy and the Erste Stiftung website, as well as articles in The Economist and elsewhere.
He is the president of the boards of the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN) and the Kosovar Stability Initiative (IKS).
Over the past two decades, Judah has worked around the world for The Economist, the New York Review of Books and others. He has notably reported from countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Madagascar, Niger, Senegal, Sudan, North Korea, Darfur, Haiti, France and Armenia.
In 2008 he published Bikila: Ethiopia’s Barefoot Olympian for Reportage Press about the life and times of the first black African to win a gold medal at the 1960 Olympics in Rome, which led him to be shortlisted in the ‘best new sportswriter’ category of the 2009 British Sports Book Awards.
Taras Kuzio is a Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and Professor in the Department of Political Science, National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy. His previous positions were at the University of Alberta, George Washington University, and University of Toronto, International Institute of Strategic Studies, and School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University. Taras Kuzio holds a PhD in political science from the University of Birmingham, England, an MA in Area Studies (USSR, Eastern Europe) from the School of Slavonic and East European Studies, University of London, and a BA in Economics from the School of European Studies, University of Sussex. He held a Post-Doctoral Fellowship at Yale University. Taras Kuzio is the author and editor of 22 books, 38 book chapters and over 130 scholarly articles on Soviet, Eurasian, Russian, and Ukrainian politics, colour revolutions, nationalism, geopolitics, and international relations.
Peter Pomerantsev is a Senior Fellow at the SNF Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University where he co-directs the Arena Initiative.
Between 2017- 2020, he was a Senior Fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science where he was the director of the Arena Initiative, a research project dedicated to overcoming the challenges of digital era disinformation and polarisation. His book on Russian propaganda, Nothing is True and Everything is Possible, won the 2016 Royal Society of Literature Ondaatje Prize and was nominated for the Samuel Johnson, Guardian First Book, Pushkin House and Gordon Burns Prizes. It is translated into over a dozen languages and was dramatized on BBC Radio 4. His new book, This is Not Propaganda, was released in August 2019 and has been shortlisted for the Gordon Burns Prize and was a Times Book of the Year.
Peter has testified on the challenges of information war and media development to the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the UK Parliament Defense Select Committee. He was a specialist advisor on the ‘UK Parliamentary Committee on Fake News’, and was a member of USC Annenberg’s ‘Transatlantic Working Group on Internet Content Moderation and Freedom of Expression. He is a columnist at the American Interest, and writes for publications including the NY Times, Granta and The Atlantic. Between 2002 and 2014 he was a television producer on documentaries and factual entertainment programs for major networks including the Discovery Channel and the BBC. He continues to present and write radio documentaries for the BBC Radio 4, most recently on disinformation about climate change.
Peter is frequently asked to host policy seminars at NATO, the EU, the UK FCO, German Foreign Office, U.S. State Department, as well as numerous public events. He has helped write in-depth policy recommendations on counter-propaganda and media diversity for both national governments and NGOs, including the UK Foreign Office’s Strategic Communication policies for Russia and the Western Balkans.’ He has given seminars and talks on the subject of propaganda and media at universities including Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard, Columbia and Princeton. He has been a fellow of the Institute for Human Sciences, Vienna.
Bob Seely is the Member of Parliament for the Isle of Wight. He sits on the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee. Mr Seely writes academically and journalistically on foreign affairs as well as more generally on non-conventional and new forms of conflict. Prior to his election in June 2017, Mr Seely served on the Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and ISIS campaigns as a member of the Armed Forces. From 1990 to 1994, Mr Seely lived in the Soviet Union and post-Soviet states. His academic and foreign affairs writing is available online at: https://kcl.academia.edu/RobertSeely. Mr Seely has written one of the few peer-reviewed definitions of Contemporary Russian Conflict Strategy available in the West.
On the 1st of February Dr Taras Kuzio, Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, Peter Pomerantsev, Senior Fellow at the SNF Agora Institute, Kira Rudik, head of the Golos Party, Bob Seely, MP for the Isle of Wight, Tim Judah, Balkan correspondent for The Economist, and Iuliia Osmolovska, Founder of Art of Business and Diplomacy Group, discussed the Russian invasion of Ukraine and what Western powers can do to bring the conflict to a rapid conclusion.
Dr Kuzio began the talk by introducing the topic and speakers. Kira Rudik spoke about her life in Kyiv during the ongoing Russian attack and recent legislation passed in the Ukrainian parliament to prepare the country for resistance. She made an impassioned plea for NATO to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Tim Judah then spoke about the mass disruption to civilian life and the shortages of goods. He spoke of how Ukraine has been transformed since the war started 8 years ago as all elements of the state were prepared from the military to health service. He argued the Russians vastly underestimated Ukrainian patriotism. Bob Seely discussed his warnings of how Putin would use the creation of Kosovo to justify wars of aggression against Georgia and Ukraine and that Putin sees a strong democratic Ukraine as a threat to Russia’s stability. Mr Seely made clear that Russians elite have a deep fear of the West. Peter Pomerantsev was buoyed by the support Ukraine has received from Washington and argued that Putin sees himself at war with West and that Putin will push into Europe until he restores his nebulous idea of “Russia”. Iuliia Osmolovska spoke about low public and military morale in Russia compounded by poor logistics and how the Russians are subverting the Ukrainian war effort.
Dr Kuzio then summarised the audience questions into four broad points which were on the feasibility of a No-Fly zone, how the war will impact Putin domestically, whether the Russians will employee more aggressive tactics and the consequences of an occupation of Ukraine.
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From cultural nationalism to white supremacy, the far-right has become a significant counter terrorism priority over the last few years across Europe, the UK and North America. Far-right inspired plots, attacks and arrests are on the rise. This is a result of the increased membership of cultural nationalist, white nationalist, and white supremacist groups and … Continued
The cyber security insurance market never took off as expected and is currently facing a major crisis as claims from companies hit by the escalating ransomware wave hit the insurers. Still, Jan Lemnitzer argues that a well-regulated insurance market could provide protection to companies and solve the big issue in cybersecurity that years of awareness … Continued
In the foreign policy they pursued for more than 60 years, Jack, Bobby, and Ted Kennedy offer valuable lessons for President Biden. Throughout their lives, the Kennedy brothers believed that America must play a prominent role on the world stage, and that it could serve as a beacon for others to emulate. They feared war, … Continued
The US and EU’s lack of a coherent strategy towards the Western Balkans has emboldened Russia to hinder the region’s integration into the EU and NATO. In recent years, the Western Balkans has been at the forefront of Russia’s strategy to expand its global influence and undermine the West. These strategies have included more traditional soft … Continued
The crimes of the Chinese Communist Party in Tibet are well known as too is the failure of governments around to world to say, let alone do, anything in response. For years Freedom House placed Tibet as the second least free place in the world and since the 2008 Tibetan uprising suppression there has intensified. … Continued
Across the Eurasian landmass, authoritarian regimes are using deeply subversive means to destabilise the liberal democratic global order. A revisionist Russia is actively engaged in using below-threshold means to destabilise NATO partners across Europe. In the Baltic states and across eastern Europe, Russia continues utilising cyber-attacks and information warfare, whilst recently utilising sophisticated disinformation campaigns … Continued
It is almost five years since the Oxford English Dictionary named “post-truth” its word of the year. Since then, the onslaught of fake news, disinformation, and conspiracy theorising have not only remained unrelenting, the problem has grown worse. With the COVID-19 pandemic, a maturing environment and practice of disinformation has found its ideal host, a … Continued
On the 1st of February 2021, newly re-elected State Counsellor of Myanmar Aung San Suu Kyi was forcefully detained by a military junta, alongside other members of her National League of Democracy (NLD) party. This coup took place hours before her confirmation in Parliament. Leader of the Military, Min Aung Hlaing, claimed that the NLD … Continued
We are delighted to host celebrated investigative journalists Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan as they discuss their timely and fascinating book The Compatriots: The Brutal and Chaotic History of Russia’s Exiles, Émigrés, and Agents Abroad. Building on their extensive expertise on Russian intelligence, this event will discuss the complex and changeable role of Russian émigrés … Continued
On 25th January 2020, the UK’s Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation, Jonathan Hall QC announced a new review into terrorism across the prison estate in England and Wales. This timely announcement comes in the wake of a number of terrorist attacks perpetrated by radicalised offenders released from across the UK prison estate and an increase … Continued
2020 was a turning point for Britain. Following the death of George Floyd in the US state of Minnesota, a wave of Black Lives Matter demonstrations took place in the UK. The protests, as far-reaching as the Shetland Islands to the Isle of Wight, have undoubtedly had an impact on various spheres of British life … Continued
Since the last National Cyber Security Strategy (NCSS) has been established, the world has endured global cyber attacks in WannaCry and Not-Petya, financial losses to cyber crime have ballooned and show no signs of slowing down. There is a clear and present need for a new generation of NCSS, but what directions should UK … Continued
In 2014 army chief Prayut Chan-o-cha launched a coup which brought himself and the Thai military to power. Five years later elections, widely seen as unfree and unfair, took place in an attempt to legitimise this rule. The junta remained in power, marking yet another setback for democracy in Thailand. This has not occurred without … Continued
Most who study or work to prevent and counter violent extremism and terrorism do so with one overriding purpose - to reduce, or even prevent further victims of terrorist attacks. Consulting survivors and the families of those lost to terrorism holds significant potential for the continued development of preventative and responsive strategies to terrorism - … Continued
India will soon have the largest population in the world, and in ten years is predicted to have the third-largest economy and defence budget. It is no wonder that Prime Minister Boris Johnson was keen to visit New Delhi for the country’s national day last month. While Covid may have cancelled this trip it has … Continued
Even in prison, Aleksei Navalny has continued his epic battle against Putin’s kleptocracy. On 19th January, Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation released their biggest investigation yet into their most sensitive topic yet: Vladimir Putin’s own wealth. The video detailing Putin’s $1billion palace reached 85 million views in just six days and sparked large-scale protests across more than sixty … Continued
In the wake of the Prime Minister’s much-vaunted recent announcement of the uplift in defence spending, the Royal Navy are set to be the big winners with increased frigates and destroyers bolstering the navy’s fleet. On the back of this announcement the UK-led Carrier Strike Group is set for its first operational mission this spring, … Continued
In the 2019 Queen's Speech, the Government announced it was “considering whether to follow allies in adopting a form of foreign agent registration”. The Government’s announcement followed a series of concerning accounts of strategic adversaries conducting disinformation and aggressive lobbying operations in London, at the risk of undermining the UK’s democratic system. In order … Continued
On 17th July, 2014, passenger jet Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 was destroyed over eastern Ukraine. All 298 people on board were killed, their bodies strewn across the cornfields of east Ukraine. These people were victims of Russia’s proxy war in Ukraine, which rages to this day and has claimed over 13,000 lives. Immediately after MH17 … Continued
2020 marked a testing year for the English education system. Over the course of the Covid-19 pandemic, there have been concerns that exam cancellations and the shift towards greater virtual learning, carries the risk of widening existing social and economic inequalities in England. In addition to this, cultural fault-lines have emerged over the content and … Continued
Anybody familiar with Russia will recognise the constancy of campaigns launched by state, quasi-state, and non-state actors – from law enforcement officers to so-called journalists and internet trolls – to discredit out-of-favour figures by the spreading of damaging information about them and their alleged activities. This phenomenon — “black PR” (chernyi piar) — emerged in the 1990s and has over time become a … Continued
The past few months have been especially terrible for Hongkongers. Their city, which over the past few years has bustled with political activity and protest, stood still. However, it was not just the fear of COVID-19 which kept people off the streets. The introduction of the national security law, in the summer of 2020, has … Continued
The December 2019 General Election will go down as one of the most dramatic in postwar history. Shattering Labour’s ‘red wall’ of previously safe seats in working-class towns across the Midlands, Northern England, and Wales, Prime Minister Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to their largest parliamentary majority since 1987 – with former Labour leader Jeremy … Continued
RSVP No European country has suffered as grievously from jihadist terrorist as France. Nearly three hundred people have been killed in a succession of outrages since 2015. President Macron has responded to the horrific murder of schoolteacher Samuel Paty, and the deadly knife attack committed at the Notre Dame Basilica in Nice, with a robust … Continued
Next year marks the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China. For Xi Jinping it is the first milestone in completing his ‘China Dream’, the last being 2049 which marks 100 years since the founding of the People’s Republic. By this point Xi hopes to restore China as a great nation, one … Continued
The election of Donald Trump in 2016 ushered in a very unique and controversial style of US Presidency. The development and delivery of US Foreign Policy by President Trump and his administration was at times both bold and brash, marked by unilateralism, and has been characterised by some as rife with internal conflicts among Cabinet … Continued
The 2020 US Presidential Election will go down as one of the most fascinating elections in American political history. While outgoing President Donald Trump has been soundly defeated in terms of the both the popular and Electoral College vote, initial voting data suggests that he unexpectedly managed to build on his 2016 support among both … Continued
WHEN 16:00-17:00 BST 7 December 2020 WHERE ONLINE Speakers: Lt. Col. (Ret.) Glen Grant Defence & Reform Expert, Ukrainian Institute of the Future & Senior Fellow, Institute for Statecraft, UK Moderator: Dr Alan Mendoza Executive Director, The Henry Jackson Society RSVP HERE The Henry Jackson Society and British-Ukrainian Aid are delighted to announce British-Ukrainian Aid’s … Continued
Following the Labour Party’s disastrous showing in last December’s UK General Election, much has been said on the breakdown of its relationship with traditional working-class voters in the industrial heartlands. However, figures suggest that there has also been a notable fraying of ties between Labour and British voters of Indian origin. In Harrow East – … Continued
Watch this event back here: https://youtu.be/C-IdqsZUhVg See the event transcript In response to China’s rise, the term ‘Indo-Pacific’ has become increasingly popular among strategic policy circles. The United States, Japan, Australia, and India have all created their own Indo-Pacific strategies or approaches, each with a slightly different interpretation – and ambition – for the … Continued
The Chinese Communist Party's actions in Hong Kong show that it is increasingly willing to act in ways that violate international norms, laws and expectations when it sees doing so as being in its own interests. Nowhere is this truer than in circumstances in which President Xi perceives the legitimacy of the party to rule … Continued
Following the police homicide of African-American George Floyd in the US state of Minnesota on 25 May 2020, a wave of civil unrest involving Black Lives Matter activists has gripped America’s major cities, from the eastern state of California to the western state of New York. However, the death of George Floyd has thrust issues … Continued
On 9 August, Belarusians took to the polls in their country’s presidential election. Aliaksandr Lukashenka, the five-term president, claimed a landslide victory, but there is compelling evidence that the vote was rigged. For the past week, citizens have protested against Lukashenka’s government and the election results. These protests have led to a troubling police crackdown, … Continued
Since the outset of the global Coronavirus pandemic, fundamental assumptions about our world have been called into question. Much of this reevaluation has focused on the question of trade. With nations unable to obtain essential supplies including PPE amidst the pandemic, import security has come to be seen as a national security concern. Nations have … Continued
President Vladimir Putin’s Russia seeks to weaken Western institutions and governments. Its disinformation campaigns attempt to exacerbate pre-existing divisions and create polarisations in societies. These campaigns are often most visible during elections, but they do not stop when the ballot box closes. Instead they are one of a number of tools in the Kremlin’s broader … Continued
The HJS Virtual Event Series: ‘Religious Freedom in China: A Spotlight on Repression’ – Thursday 16th July, 4pm-5.30pm (BST)
China today is facing the worst crackdown on human rights since the Tiananmen massacre in 1989. Across the board, basic freedoms are severely restricted and human rights widely and systematically violated by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). But there is one freedom which is experiencing, arguably, the worst repression since the Cultural Revolution, and that … Continued
How does the Chinese Government engineer its victories around the world? How has this threat influenced different aspects of our societies? How does it seek to persuade our leaders, policymakers, and elites to take decisions in its interests? These questions are no longer the niche interests of security analysts but real and present threats to our … Continued
The recent Black Lives Matter (BLM) demonstrations in the UK, following the police homicide of George Floyd on 25 May 2020 in the US state of Minnesota, have thrust issues such as trust and confidence in British public institutions into the spotlight. But messaging around the issue of black lives has become intertwined with the … Continued
A discussion with the chairs of the House of Commons Foreign Affairs, Defence and International Development Select Committees: Tom Tugendhat MP, Tobias Ellwood MP and Sarah Champion MP Covid-19 has interrupted HM Government’s Integrated Strategic Review. The pandemic – and the geopolitics behind it – has forced Britain’s strategists and policymakers to think harder about how the … Continued
20 years ago, Sir Robert Cooper’s updated pamphlet – The Postmodern State and the World Order – was published. It focused on the changing strategic situation in Europe. His argument, in a nutshell, was that globalisation and the end of the Cold War had rendered Europe a very different place to what had gone before. … Continued
The HJS Virtual Event Series: ‘Prof. Niall Ferguson: In Conversation – How Coronavirus Will Change the World of International Relations’
All event times are in BST. It is evident that Coronavirus has transformed our world. But what will its impact be on international relations and global politics? Whether it is changes in the international order and how that order interacts, the future of globalisation, China’s global role, the relative strengths of the free versus … Continued
Event times are in BST. While most look on a crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic with worry, and view it as a challenge to be overcome, there are dangerous, hate-filled actors who consider these troubling times to be a gift. A golden opportunity not to be wasted. Far-right extremists – both abroad and closer … Continued
HJS VIRTUAL EVENT “Russia and the High North: How Should the West Engage the Next Chair of the Arctic Council (2021-23)?”
All event times are in BST In 2021, for a two-year period, Russia will chair the Arctic Council, the leading intergovernmental forum promoting cooperation in the Arctic. It will do so whilst the region – and the world – grapples with the coronavirus pandemic, ongoing tensions between Russia and the West, and uncertainty over … Continued
Beijing’s plans to impose a ‘national security law’ on Hong Kong’s independent judiciary have provoked an international outcry. The EU’s top diplomat has said that China’s attempts to strengthen its control of Hong Kong pose a threat to the rules-based international order. The proposed law conflicts directly with China’s international obligations under the legally-binding Sino-British … Continued
HJS VIRTUAL EVENT: “Brian H. Hook & The Rt. Hon. Jeremy Hunt MP: In Transatlantic Conversation on Iran”
It is easy to forget this now, but at the start of 2020, the biggest flashpoint for many international policy-makers was not a global pandemic in the making, but the vexed question of how to handle Iran. When US President Donald Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018 supported by the … Continued
The HJS Virtual Event Series: ‘COVID-19 and Social Media – Meeting Challenges using Lessons Learned from Countering Terrorism’
Following the extensive use of social media platforms by extremist groups and terrorist organisations for propaganda and recruitment purposes, technology companies have taken important proactive policy decisions on removing material and banning users from their sites. This discussion will focus on whether some of the same techniques and lessons learned can be applied to new … Continued
All event times are in BST Ukraine is used to fighting crises – and at the moment it is fighting three. The country currently has had around 20,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19, in a population of almost 42 million. It has the lowest testing rate in Europe, and the health care system is dilapidated … Continued
All event times in BST Covid-19 has hit Western and Southern European countries – Spain, Italy, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland – particularly hard. Across the continent, governments have implemented ‘lock downs’ to contain and repress the spread of the virus. China and Russia have seized on … Continued
Event times are in BST The United Kingdom (UK) is currently in second place behind the United States (US) in terms of the national number of COVID-19 deaths, and also ranks highly in terms of active cases. There are of course valid criticisms to be made about using ‘league tables’ without adjusting for population … Continued
Covid-19 has left a trail of destruction everywhere in its wake, but one of its most pernicious impacts is likely to be in the advances made by authoritarian states – and putative authoritarians – against their own populations but also against the free world. Human rights violations and suppressions of dissent that would normally spark global … Continued
Event times are in BST In a provocative new thesis – laid out in his book “Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy” – veteran diplomat Professor Kishore Mahbubani takes as his starting point the common idea that the defining geopolitical clash of the century will be between the USA and China, … Continued
As Europe is to mark the 75th anniversary of the end of WW2, national narratives of those historic events hugely differ across Europe. Identity and historical memory are often hijacked by populist and nationalist agendas and history suddenly enters the political mainstream. In Britain, the tabloid media has often fallen back on spurious references … Continued