Northern Israel is under attack as Hezbollah continually sends barrages of rockets causing 60,000 of Israel’s northern residents to be evacuated from their homes. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah has threatened to increase the range of attacks. With thousands of long-range missiles and mortars at their disposal, they’ve already successfully targeted multiple military bases in the north of Israel and it could attack IDF bases and wreak severe destruction to critical infrastructure including Israel’s power grid. Thus, Israel faces a conundrum. On one hand it seeks to avoid a major war. Yet, it cannot allow Hezbollah to maintain its military capacity.

Israel is yet to determine whether the dismantling of Hamas in Gaza is reconstituting a degree of deterrence of Hezbollah and whether allocating troops to Gaza is at the expense of protecting against threats emanating from Lebanon. As part of this calculus, Tel-Aviv is considering keeping two full divisions of IDF soldiers on the northern border in an attempt to prevent Hezbollah’s return to Southern Lebanon.

Join this timely discussion between Major General (ret.) Giora Eiland, former Head of Israel’s National Security Council, and Barak Seener, Senior Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society to explore whether a war between Israel and Lebanon is inevitable and if Israel should in fact preempt the rising threat from Hezbollah to avoid a large-scale war in the region.

Major General (ret.) Giora Eiland, former Head of Israel’s National Security Council (N.S.C), and a former IDF General who held key positions as Head of the Operations Directorate (J3) and as Head of the Planning Directorate (J5).

During his tenure in the IDF and as head of the N.S.C, Eiland played a central role in Israel’s significant strategic decision-making processes, positioning him at the highest level of security both within Israel and on the international stage. Currently, Eiland serves as a senior consultant and a commentator on strategic affairs in the media.

Barak Seener is a Senior Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and the founder of Strategic Intelligentia and the Gulf Futures Forum. Barak also hosts a geopolitical podcast called The Geo Godfather Wars. Previously, Barak was a Global Intelligence Manager at HSBC and the Middle East Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. Barak has lectured at NATO as well as the Royal College for Defence Studies. He also staged the world’s first, and hugely successful conference in London at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) on Palestinian statehood. Barak published a book in 2018 entitled, ‘Commercial Risks Entering the Iranian Market: Why sanctions make investment in the Islamic Republic of Iran a high-risk proposition.’

Barak has published and provided analysis and expert commentary for a range of international broadcasters including Al-Jazeera, BBC, CNN, Chinese CCTV, Fox News, Sky News, Voice of America, and news outlets such as Bloomberg, Reuters, Associated Press, the Evening Standard, Jerusalem Post and Xinhua. Barak has published in publications including Newsweek, the National Interest, the American Interest, Jane’s Intelligence Review and Jane’s Islamic Affairs Analyst on counter-terrorism, US-China dynamics, risks to supply chains, globalization and the end of the liberal international order, transatlantic relations, universal jurisdiction, nuclear proliferation and Middle East issues including the Arab Spring, tensions in Libya, Egypt and Syria, strategic and security dynamic between Iran and the Gulf, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

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EVENT SUMMARY

Barak Seener and Giora Eiland discussed the likelihood of a war between Israel and Hezbollah, with Eiland positing that neither side wants a total war and that there are political and professional/military factors at play. Later, Eiland and Seener explored the potential consequences of such a war, including devastation to Lebanon’s infrastructure, economy, and people, as well as the potential for a civil war. The conversation also touched on Iran’s military capabilities and strategies in the Middle East, with a focus on its proxy militias in various countries and the need for the US and West to deter Iran from attacking Israel.

This event can only be watched ONLINE.

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