CRACKING THE CHINA CONUNDRUM: WHY CONVENTIONAL ECONOMIC WISDOM IS OFTEN WRONG

- This event has passed.
CRACKING THE CHINA CONUNDRUM: WHY CONVENTIONAL ECONOMIC WISDOM IS OFTEN WRONG
25th September 2017 @ 12:30 pm - 1:30 pm

China’s rise is altering global power relations, reshaping economic debates, and commanding tremendous public attention.
Despite extensive media and academic scrutiny, the conventional wisdom about China’s economy is often wrong. Cracking the China Conundrum provides a holistic and contrarian view of China’s major economic, political, and foreign policy issues.
The Henry Jackson Society are delighted to invite you to an event with Yukon Huang, Author of Cracking the China Conundrum and Senior Fellow, Asia Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Yukon will address widely accepted yet misguided views in the analysis of China’s economy. He will examine arguments about the causes and effects of China’s possible debt and property market bubbles, trade and investment relations with the Western world, the links between corruption and political liberalisation in a growing economy and Beijing’s more assertive foreign policies.
Yukon Huang is a Senior Fellow with the Asia Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He was formerly the World Bank’s country director for China and earlier director for Russia and the Former Soviet Union Republics. He is an adviser to the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and various governments and corporations. Huang has published widely on development issues in both professional journals and the public media. He is a featured commentator for the Financial Times on China, and his articles are seen frequently in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Foreign Affairs, the National Interest, and Caixin. His books include East Asia Visions, Reshaping Economic Geography in East Asia, and International Migration and Development in East Asia and the Pacific.
***
EVENT SUMMARY
On 25 September 2017, the Henry Jackson Society hosted a special event with the illustrious Yukon Huang—Senior Fellow with the Asia Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, adviser to the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and formerly the Chinese country director at the World Bank (as well as director for Russia and the Eastern Republics)—to speak about his new book, Cracking the China Conundrum: Why Conventional Economic Wisdom is Wrong.
Hosted by Dr John Hemmings, Director of the Asia Studies Centre at the Henry Jackson Society, Mr Yukon argued that modern China preternaturally commands public attention unlike any other power in the new century, including even the established American hegemon. Pursuant to explore a nuanced approach toward “the China Question,” the lecturer sought to demonstrate that conventional (specifically, in this regard, economic) wisdom often proves to be completely inaccurate. “If the diagnosis of the problem is wrong,” he said, “then the recommended policy [option] is wrong.”
Since policymaking would ordinarily begin with public opinion, Mr Yukon insisted, the conundrum was itself rooted in divergent perceptions: First, in exploring the determinative salience of public opinion within the Sino-American bilateral relationship, he emphasised that both populations habitually regard the other as the predominant economic power despite reference to credible statistics; Second, Mr Yukon illustrated the record-high levels of “unfavourability” toward Beijing amongst the European capitals, most particularly Berlin (Germany), Paris (France), Madrid (Spain), and London (Great Britain). Keen to assert that political opinions are more regularly driven by “unpredictable personal predispositions,” the consequence of emotive diplomacy was the formulation of policy routes wholly unsuitable or inappropriate to the widening gulf of distrust between the two powers. Mr Yukon proceeded by challenging preconceived and established wisdoms; summarily:
- There is no relationship between the Chinese surplus and the American deficit;
- Chinese ambitions to improve relations with the Western powers vis-à-vis the establishment of the One Belt, One Road project will plant the seeds of multigenerational geopolitical tension and, thus, rivalry;
- Beijing has invested energy and resources into “innovation,” including regional development, the promotion of domestic universities, and company proliferation within the high-tech sector, resulting in unprecedented gains;
- As the comparatively small and unconnected G20 states “worsen,” a natural pivot toward the gravitational pull of China will ensue;
- Unlike similarly-minded Asian states, China engages in technology theft at intolerably high rates; with both the capacity and the institutions to exploit these gains, Beijing will likely continue to steal for as long as it sees fit;
- “Greased” by systemic corruption, the Chinese economy will continue to grow as it undergoes “financial deepening”—indicative of long-term chronic structural issues.
RELATED EVENTS
Eastern European Security: 5 Years from Maidan
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in early 2014, gave rise to fears that the Kremlin might try its luck militarily elsewhere … Continued
Women’s Voices In Extremism
It is clear that women serve as facilitators, supporters, and instigators of violence in terrorist movements. This panel will discuss … Continued
UNWRA: Time for a Rethink?
There are many reasons why the peace process between Israelis and Palestinians has foundered. One of the most contentious issues between … Continued
The Price of Prosperity
As President Donald Trump confounds Washington DC and promises to reshape policy from taxation to healthcare to foreign affairs, governments and … Continued
Evolution of Russia’s Foreign Policy: 5 Years from Maidan
Five years ago next month, Russia annexed Crimea in the first forcible annexation of the territory of a European country … Continued
Britain’s Strategic Interest in South China Sea
In late August last year stories began to emerge in the media of a confrontation between the Royal Navy and … Continued
Nationalism and Internationalism in the Age of Populism
Western liberalism is under attack, not only at home also but from newly-emboldened authoritarian states abroad. Across the West, states … Continued
Ukraine: 5 Years on from Maidan
In January 2014, Ukraine’s then-President Victor Yanukovych passed a series of ‘anti-protest’ laws to quash growing unrest in the country. … Continued
The Sarawak Report
The 1MDB scandal, the theft of billions of dollars from Malaysia’s sovereign wealth fund, and the attempt to cover it … Continued
Global Britain and the Future of Europe
As the United Kingdom withdraws from the European Union, its position in relation to the continental mainland is once again … Continued
The Full English Brexit
“Whether we like it or not, Brexit will happen at 11 PM on 29 March 2019. That much is sure and is … Continued
The Future of Capitalism: Facing the New Anxieties
Deep new rifts are tearing apart the fabric of Britain and other Western societies: thriving cities versus the provinces, the … Continued
Understanding the Uighur Situation in Xinjiang
In August of last year, human rights experts in the UN called on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to … Continued
Lessons from Churchill for the Contemporary Age
Since the last major biography of Churchill, forty-one sets of papers have been deposited at the Churchill Archives, and The … Continued
Future Politics
Future Politics confronts one of the most important questions of our time: how will digital technology transform politics and society? … Continued
Dark Commerce: How a New Illicit Economy Is Threatening Our Future
Though mankind has traded tangible goods for millennia, recent technology has changed the fundamentals of trade, in both legitimate and … Continued
Belt and Road: A Chinese World Order – Implications for “Global Britain”
China’s Belt and Road strategy is acknowledged to be the most ambitious geopolitical initiative of the age. Covering almost seventy countries by land … Continued
Why Middle Eastern Jewish Refugees Are Key to Understanding and Resolving the Israel-Palestine Conflict
Jews lived continuously in the Middle East and North Africa for almost 3,000 years. But in just 50 years, indigenous communities … Continued
Secular States, Religious Politics: India, Turkey, and the Future of Secularism
India and Turkey were the two exemplars of twentieth-century ‘secular states’ outside of the West. Professor Sumantra Bose believes that … Continued
Movie screening ‘Better Angels’
At a time when the world’s two acknowledged superpowers seem to be moving closer towards economic and political conflict, a … Continued
Nationalist Populism and the Future of Political Risk in the West
The political events of recent years have sent shockwaves throughout the established order of Western liberal democracies. Election after election … Continued
Global Britain and Vietnam
As global trade becomes increasingly maritime in nature, so too it is beginning to follow the centre of the global economy, … Continued
The McCain Legacy and the Magnitsky Act
The United States’ adoption of the Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act of 2012 marked a watershed in America’s, … Continued
The Future of ‘Global Britain’ as a ‘Seapower State’
Prof. Andrew Lambert’s new book, Seapower States examines how Britain and four other seapowers used their special identities to inform … Continued
The Left’s Jewish Problem: Jeremy Corbyn, Israel and Anti-Semitism
Dave Rich’s updated edition of The Left’s Jewish Problem: Jeremy Corbyn, Israel and Antisemitism (2018) contends that antisemitism is a … Continued
Adam Smith: What He Thought and Why It Matters
At a time when economics and politics are ever more polarized between left and right, Jesse Norman MP in his 'Adam … Continued
The Road to Unfreedom
Long before the election of Donald Trump, Timothy Snyder began to issue warnings concerning threats to American democracy. A leading … Continued
Women, Peace and Security Index
The status of women offers key insights into a nation's prosperity and security. The first-ever Women, Peace and Security Index offers … Continued
Polonium, Novichok, Propaganda
Since Vladimir Putin came to power in Russia in 2000, a defining trait of his regime has been its use … Continued
Women and Sharia Law
Human Rights activist and Arab scholar Dr. Elham Manea in her book Women and Sharia Law: The Impact of Legal Pluralism in … Continued
Global Britain and the South China Sea
Over the past 4 years, the People’s Republic of China has built a number of fortress islands in the South … Continued
Moneyland: Why Thieves and Crooks Now Rule the World and How to Take It Back
Moneyland is the secret country of the wealthy and unscrupulous, the place where they put their assets, their children and … Continued
How Russia Abuses Interpol – And How To Stop It
It is widely recognised that Russia abuses Interpol. Russia uses the International Criminal Police Organization to harass dissidents, political opponents, … Continued
Ending the Endless War? A New Strategy for Afghanistan
The Afghanistan War has now lasted for 17 years, and estimates suggest has cost the US government upwards of $750 … Continued
Under Siege: The Persecution of Minorities in the Middle East
The Middle East remains one of the most tumultuous regions in the world today, with its many ethnic and religious … Continued
UK-US Financial Cooperation After Brexit
The level of cooperation between the United Kingdom and the United States has been described as “unparalleled” among major powers. … Continued
HJS Report Launch: Negotiating the Peace: Diplomacy on the Korean Peninsula
The past 18 months have seen an immense amount of economic, diplomatic, and even military activity relating to the Korean … Continued
Nine Lives: My Time as MI6’s Top Spy Inside Al-Qaeda
As one of al-Qaeda's most respected bomb-makers, Aimen Dean rubbed shoulders with the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks and swore … Continued
Exploding Data: Reclaiming Our Cyber Security in the Digital Age
The most dangerous threat we face today is no longer military, but rather the increasingly pervasive exposure of our personal … Continued
President Trump, the EU and the UK
Donald Trump campaigned in 2016 by explicitly rejecting the foreign policy of recent presidents, Democrat and Republican. Perhaps nowhere was … Continued
HOW TO RIG AN ELECTION
To book for our next event, Exploding Data: Reclaiming Our Cyber Security in the Digital Age, press here. SPEAKERS: Dr … Continued
END OF AN ERA: HOW CHINA’S AUTHORITARIAN REVIVAL IS UNDERMINING ITS RISE
SPEAKER: Professor Carl Minzner, author, End of an Era China’s reform era is ending. Core factors that characterised its political stability, … Continued
COLLAPSE: EUROPE AFTER THE EUROPEAN UNION
SPEAKER: Dr Ian Kearns, author, Collapse: Europe After the European Union Could the European Union collapse in the near future? Following … Continued
IN THE SHADOW OF THE AMIA BOMBING: GLOBAL TERROR AND THE THREAT TODAY
SPEAKERS: His Excellency Renato Carlos Sersale di Cerisano - The Argentine Ambassador to the United Kingdom; Dr. Shimon Samuels - … Continued
RUSSIA’S ASSASSINATIONS ABROAD
SPEAKERS: Marina Litvinenko, activist and campaigner; Luke Harding, Guardian correspondent; and Giles Udy, historian and author During Vladimir Putin’s time in power a … Continued
PESHMERGA: ‘THOSE WHO FACE DEATH’
SPEAKER: Dr Simon Ross Valentine, author, Peshmerga: 'Those Who Face Death' Before the invasion of northern Iraq by ISIS in … Continued
TRUMP AND TRADE DEFICITS
SPEAKER: Dr Linda Yueh, economist and author As we anticipate the visit of President Donald Trump to the UK, many … Continued
BY MORE THAN PROVIDENCE: GRAND STRATEGY AND AMERICAN POWER IN THE ASIA PACIFIC SINCE 1783
SPEAKERS: Dr Michael Green - Author of By More Than Providence and Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair … Continued
GLOBAL BRITAIN AND INDIA: A NEW ‘SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP’?
In the midst of some great changes in the international system, countries have been left with the qaundry of how … Continued
BELLINGCAT, OPEN SOURCE INVESTIGATIONS, AND THE TRUTH ABOUT MH17
SPEAKER: Eliot Higgins, Founder of Bellingcat The destruction of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine in July 2014 shocked the … Continued
ASIAN WATERS: THE STRUGGLE OVER THE ASIA-PACIFIC AND THE STRATEGY OF CHINESE EXPANSION
SPEAKERS: Humphrey Hawksley, author of Asian Waters: The Struggle Over the Asia-Pacific and the Strategy of Chinese Expansion ; Bill Hayton, Associate Fellow … Continued
THE SECRET WORLD: A HISTORY OF INTELLIGENCE
SPEAKER: PROFESSOR CHRISTOPHER ANDREW, Author of The Secret World: A History of Intelligence Partly because of official secrecy, no 20th century … Continued
BETWEEN KIN AND COSMOPOLIS: AN ETHIC OF THE NATION
PROFESSOR NIGEL BIGGAR, Regius Professor of Moral and Pastoral Theology, Oxford University, in conversation with Douglas Murray The nation-state is … Continued
THE ISRAEL-PALESTINIAN PEACE PROCESS: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE
SPEAKER: EHUD OLMERT, former Prime Minister of Israel It’s been 10 years since the last meaningful peace deal was put … Continued
HORIZON 2020: WHAT WILL THE MIDTERMS TELL US ABOUT THE FUTURE OF U.S. ELECTIONS?
Whatever one’s feelings toward the outcome of the 2016 US elections, there can be no doubting the historic impact and … Continued
NATO: EUROPEAN SECURITY AT A TIME OF TRANSATLANTIC UNCERTAINTY
As Britain considers its relationship with Europe, European security has never been more precarious, with Russian revanchism on the rise … Continued
HJS REPORT LAUNCH: “DEFENDING EUROPE: ‘GLOBAL BRITAIN’ AND THE FUTURE OF EUROPEAN GEOPOLITICS”
As the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, geopolitics is returning to the European continent. Germany and France are squabbling … Continued