COLLAPSE: EUROPE AFTER THE EUROPEAN UNION
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COLLAPSE: EUROPE AFTER THE EUROPEAN UNION
24th July 2018 @ 1:00 pm - 2:00 pmFree
SPEAKER: Dr Ian Kearns, author, Collapse: Europe After the European Union
Could the European Union collapse in the near future?
Following the Brexit vote, and amid the rise of terrorism, a still vulnerable single currency, the growing threat from Russia, a staggering refugee crisis and spiralling Euroscepticism, many have wondered how long the EU can survive. Few, however, realise just how fragile the current situation is or what the consequences of disintegration would be.
The Henry Jackson Society is pleased to invite you to an event with Dr Ian Kearns, who will trace the scenarios that could lead to the ultimate breakdown of the European Union and in presenting his latest book, he will forecast the catastrophic economic, political and geopolitical fallout that is likely to follow.
Signed copies of Collapse: Europe After the European Union will be on sale after the event. We accept card and contactless methods of payment.
Dr Ian Kearns is the author of Collapse: Europe After the European Union. Dr Kearns was the Co-Founder, Board Member and former Director of the European Leadership Network and former Deputy Director of the Institute for Public Policy Research. With over twenty years of experience working on foreign and security policy issues, Dr Kearns has published extensively on a wide range of issues including Britain’s ‘special relationship’ with the US, nuclear non-proliferation, the enlargement of the European Union, conflict in the former Yugoslavia, and the security situation in Northern Ireland.
On the 24th of July the Henry Jackson Society had the pleasure of hosting Dr Ian Kearns, formerly Director of the European leadership network and author of Collapse: Europe After the European Union. HJS’s James Rogers, Director of the Global Britain Programme, chaired the event and led a thought provoking discussion about Dr Kearns’ book.
Dr Kearns began by explaining his background and that the audience should see his work as a warning and not as a prediction. This, Dr Kearns told us, is the first sentence of the book, confirming that warnings are not issued unless they are deemed necessary. Dr Kearns then went on to explain why he thought it necessary to issue such a warning. The first reason he gave was that there are many people who want to see the end to the European Union. Secondly, he argued there are friends of the institution, who have become too complacent, and who think that the future of the union is safe. This combination, warned Kearns, could cause the union as we know it to collapse.
Dr Kearns’ pointed out that the European Union if fairly vulnerable and that it’s entirely possible to identify a number of trigger scenarios that would leave to the union’s collapse. Using these points, Dr Kearns went on to argue that such a collapse of the European Union would be an unmitigated disaster, that would lead to economic chaos, a nationalist fuel form of scapegoating politics and trade protectionism. This will be the future, unless we change course now, Kearns warned.
In discussing the Brexit campaign Dr Kearns’ essential argument is that there were very British reasons for Brexit and that other European nations have learnt from the Brexit, particularly when it comes to issues perceived as the economic mismanagement of the Eurozone, the way poorer countries were treated, the way some countries were corrupt in the European Union.
The conversation then moved on to the issue of Security in relation to the collapse of the European Union. Dr Kearns spoke of his fear, in that any lack of capability to cooperate will be translated into a weaker ability to deal with terrorism, to deal with migration, to deal with trafficking of drugs, weapons, people, all of which will have ugly consequences over time on our streets, which Kearns concluded will only enforce the illiberal mood that is currently gripping Europe. In reference to the security chapters of his book, Dr Kearns highlighted that NATO would be effectively destroyed by the collapse of the European Union, because the political solidarity to make it function, would no longer exist.
Conscious of time, Dr Kearns went on to mention that his book contains ideas about how some of the challenges facing the European Union can be addressed. In concluding, Dr Kearns issued the same warning which he started with. In professing his honesty, Dr Kearns stated that he doubted that the collapse of the European Union will happen that is unless fundamental changes occur and that would require nothing short of changing the dynamic.
The Henry Jackson would like to thank Dr Ian Kearns for the presentation of his book, Collapse: Europe After the European Union.
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